Top 2 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/11)
We have a mini four-game slate of hockey on Friday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my two best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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Pittsburgh Penguins (+135) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (-155) | O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)
We have an Eastern Conference tilt with the Atlantic Division’s Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins. Pittsburgh finally snapped its seven-game losing streak with a 4-1 victory over the Washington Capitals on Wednesday night, a win that should kick things back into gear for a competent group.
Projected to start between the pipes for the Penguins is goaltender Casey DeSmith. He boasts a .913 SV% and 2.80 GAA through five starts this season.
If DeSmith qualified, he would rank 11th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. This strong play should continue against Toronto, a team he has posted a .950 SV% throughout his career.
Additionally, DeSmith should get plenty of goal support as Pittsburgh ranks fourth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5. Slated to start in the crease for the Leafs is goaltender Erik Kallgren, who has been thrust into this position due to the number of injuries sustained by Toronto’s goaltenders.
Through six appearances, he is 1-1-3 with a .890 SV% and 2.98 GAA. With the Penguins needing to continue to turn things around, this contest is a great opportunity to grab back-to-back wins.
Best Bet: Penguins ML (+135)
San Jose Sharks (+185) @ Dallas Stars (-215) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)
We have a Western Conference tilt with the Central Division’s Dallas Stars hosting the Pacific Division’s San Jose Sharks. These two clubs are trending in opposite directions, as the Sharks have lost five straight games while the Stars have won four of their last six.
Those trends should continue in this contest as goaltender James Reimer is slated to take the crease for San Jose. Through nine starts this season, he is 2-5-2 with a .910 SV% and 2.88 GAA.
While those are strong surface-level stats, Reimer’s metrics suggest that regression is looming. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks just 19th in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
In front of Reimer is a fade-worthy defense. At 5v5 this season, the Sharks rank just 21st in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
This poor defense will have a difficult time against Dallas’ strong offense, which ranks 12th in the league in xGF/60 at 5v5. San Jose has now surrendered at least four goals in five straight games, while the Stars have scored at least four in three of their last four.
Best Bet: Dallas Stars Team Total Over 3.5 (-125)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.