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Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (1/22)

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The 2024-25 college basketball season rolls on and we have another loaded Wednesday night of games to wager on. Our top men’s college basketball bets today feature Kansas at TCU in a Big 12 battle. Plus, we lock in picks for USC at Nebraska in the Big Ten and Boise State at Colorado State in the Mountain West. 

Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 22nd. 

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Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Kansas (-6.5) at TCU | O/U 136.5 (-110/-110)

Kansas is having a very interesting season so far. On the one hand, the Jayhawks are a top-10 team nationally, according to KenPom and Bart Torvik with impressive non-conference wins over Duke and Michigan State. Yet, Bill Self's squad is just 6-4 over the past 10 games and recently lost by nearly 20 points to Iowa State. 

The Jayhawks should win tonight on the road at TCU. Instead of looking at the spread, though, let's target the total for this Big 12 clash. 

Kansas is elite defensively, ranking fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency among all Division I programs, per KenPom. That's been very evident during Big 12 play as the Jayhawks lead the conference in opposing three-point, two-point and effective field-goal percentages. They're also allowing just 58.8 points per game (PPG) to conference opponents thus far. 

However, Kansas leaves much to be desired on the offensive end. That was evident when it scored just 57 points vs. Iowa State and 54 points vs. Cincinnati in back-to-back road games recently. The Jayhawks have two double-digit scorers in Hunter Dickinson and Zeke Mayo but no other consistently reliable scoring options. 

As for TCU, its offense took a major hit with Frankie Collins suffering a season-ending injury last month. Since then, the Horned Frogs are averaging 67.5 PPG with their starting point guard sidelined. TCU ranks just 156th nationally in offensive efficiency this season, per KenPom. The offense is also 14th and 15th, respectively, in two-point and free-throw shooting percentages during conference play. 

On the flip side, TCU ranks 31st in the country in defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs will need to lean on its defense in this home matchup and keep things low scoring for the chance at an upset. Kansas has been prone to playing in slower-paced games where its offense struggles at times. 

Kansas is now 15-2 to the under this year as the market continues to overvalue its offense. That includes a 7-0 mark to the under on the road or neutral courts. TCU is 7-2-1 to the under at home this season, including all three Big 12 home games hitting the under. Both teams are better defensively and it should lead to a low-scoring game. 

Pick: Under 136.5 Points (-110)

Boise State at Colorado State (-1.5) | O/U 139.5 (-115/-105)

Last week, Boise State got embarrassed on the road in New Mexico. It gave up 84 points in a 19-point loss while trailing by 27 at halftime. It was easily the Broncos' worst performance and largest loss this season. Let's count on a bounce-back performance from Leon Rice's squad against an easier opponent tonight. 

Boise State is 5-0 straight up (SU) after a loss this season, which continues an encouraging trend for Rice's teams in recent years. The Broncos were 7-2 after a loss last year and are now 12-1 after a loss in conference play over the past four seasons combined. Simply put, Boise knows how to regroup and turn the page after falling short. 

Specifically, a blowout loss last time out should have Boise State extra motivated here. Point guard Alvaro Cardenas just had his worst game of the year and stud big man Tyson Degenhart was held in check. Colorado State isn't as strong defensively as New Mexico, so expect better outings from both of Boise's leaders. 

Boise State has the Mountain West's top offensive efficiency in conference play, per KenPom. The Broncos are also first in offensive rebounding rate and the best at avoiding steals versus conference opponents. Meanwhile, Colorado State is dead last in defensive turnover, block and steal rates among Mountain West teams. 

Furthermore, Colorado State is 309th nationally in offensive rebounding while Boise boasts the fourth-best defensive rebounding rate in the sport. Though the Broncos' three-point defense has been an issue, the Rams are shooting just 32.2% from deep this season (233rd in Division I). Put it all together and Boise State should win the rebounding and turnover battles, especially offensively. 

Colorado State is off to a solid 5-2 start in Mountain West play and just beat Wyoming by 16 points last time out. Still, the Rams haven't consistently proven themselves against better competition this year. They are 3-6 against top-100 KenPom teams, including a 15-point loss at San Diego State a week ago. 

The Broncos also desperately need some quality wins moving forward to get back into the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. It starts tonight as we buy low on a team that's lost three of its last five games but still offers plenty of upside. 

Pick: Boise State +1.5 (-118)

USC at Nebraska (-5.5) | O/U 144.5 (-115/-105)

Nebraska is in a tough spot after losing four straight games coming into tonight. The Cornhuskers face Wisconsin, Illinois and Oregon (all top-20 ranked teams) over the next three games following this clash with USC. The situation essentially makes tonight a must-win game if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Don't forget, Nebraska was 12-2 to start the season and ranked as high as 39th at KenPom before this current losing streak. Plus, the results lately are relatively understandable - outside of the home loss to Rutgers. The 'Huskers lost on the road to Iowa in overtime, on the road to top-tier Purdue and at Maryland. The last of those was just a three-point deficit. 

Besides the situational spot, Nebraska's recent home dominance is impossible to ignore. The Cornhuskers went 10-0 against the spread (ATS) at home in conference play last year. They're 19-4 ATS at home versus Big Ten opponents over the past three seasons combined. They are 2-1 ATS at home in the conference and should get back on track after losing to Rutgers last week. 

As for USC, it's been a mixed bag of results on the road in Big Ten play lately. It impressively won at Illinois by 10 points, though the Illini were without their best player in Kasparas Jakucionis. The Trojans previously lost by double digits at Indiana, a loss that's aging a tad poorly considering the Hoosiers' struggles. 

Any road trip for Big Ten teams that requires cross-country travel is proving tough this season. That's even before we consider that USC has yet to experience playing a road game at Nebraska's Pinnacle Bank Arena. Better teams than the Trojans have suffered losses there and now they take on a hungry Cornhuskers squad desperate to break a losing streak. 

Frankly, many advanced stats point towards USC in this matchup. One area Nebraska can build and maintain a lead, though, is via a defense that forces three-point shots and funnels scoring to the perimeter while limiting things inside.

That's exactly the opposite of USC's offensive plan. The Trojans are 326th nationally in percentage of total points from three-point scoring and 331st in three-point attempts per each field-goal attempt. 

Nebraska can get USC out of its rhythm on the road and force bad shots. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers can score enough at home against a Trojans defense allowing 82.4 PPG over the past five conference games with at least 82 in four of those. 

Pick: Nebraska -5.5 (-110)

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