Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (2/12)

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The 2024-25 college basketball season rolls on and we have another loaded Wednesday night of games to wager on. Our top men's college basketball bets today feature an ACC matchup of Florida State vs. Wake Forest as the latter looks to build its NCAA Tournament case. Plus, we dive deep into Arizona State vs. Texas Tech in the Big 12 and then Ole Miss vs. South Carolina in the SEC.  

Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 12.

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Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets

(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)

Florida State at Wake Forest (-6.5) - O/U 143.5 (-110/-110)

Wake Forest is off to a 10-3 start to conference play as one of the ACC's best teams. The Demon Deacons are still sitting right on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament field and need to keep winning to improve their resume. Let's back them at home tonight with Florida State coming to town. 

Wake's three conference losses this year are all understandable. It fell at home vs. Duke and on the road at Clemson and Louisville. Besides those results, the Demon Deacons have taken care of business against the middle and bottom tier of the league. They're now 9-2 straight up (SU) and 8-2-1 against the spread (ATS) over the past 11 games. 

Florida State, meanwhile, bested Notre Dame at home last time out and could be in for a letdown. The win broke a four-game losing streak in which the Seminoles suffered bad losses to California, Boston College, and Virginia Tech. The victory was also only their second against a top-100 team in the NET this season - going 1-5 SU and ATS in the other six instances. 

The Demon Deacons' defense should control this game. Wake Forest ranks 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (per KenPom) while allowing just 65.8 PPG at home in conference play. The defense is also the league's best in opposing three-point percentage, turnover rate, steal rate, and effective field goal percentage during ACC games. 

Florida State is shooting a poor 32.0% from three in conference play while dealing with turnover issues offensively. This is a tough spot for an FSU team that's struggled on the road too. The 'Noles are 1-6 SU and ATS in road games this season, losing by an average of 9.5 PPG in those six losses. Furthermore, they're 2-5 ATS as underdogs this year. 

It's also tough to gauge the motivation for the 'Noles right now. Leonard Hamilton will be stepping down at the end of the season amid his former players currently suing him for failed NIL payments. That's an unfortunate situation in itself. Florida State's depth is also being desperately pushed with Taylor Bol Bowen and Jerry Dieng both nursing injuries. 

Grab Wake Forest to win comfortably tonight. The Deacs return home from a West Coast road trip and should take advantage of this easy matchup. They are 8-1-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year and are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings vs. FSU. 

Pick: Wake Forest -6.5 (-115)

Arizona State at Texas Tech (-15.5) - O/U 143.5 (-105/-115)

On Saturday night, Texas Tech allowed 82 points in a road loss at Arizona. The Tech defense should get back on track tonight for this home clash vs. Arizona State. We have multiple trends and stats pointing towards a lower-scoring game than the sportsbooks suggest. 

First, bank on Texas Tech to control the flow of this game as the clear better team and now back at home. The Red Raiders allowed Arizona to speed things up in an offensive-focused affair last time out. Ideally, they want to keep things slow-paced as evidenced by their 267th-ranked tempo in the country. Tech also plays at the 14th-slowest tempo in the Big 12 during conference action.

The TTU defense is the real difference-maker here. It's allowed fewer than 60 points in four straight home games, giving up just 56 PPG at home in this stretch. The Red Raiders rank 28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency while holding opponents to 28.6% from three-point range (first in Big 12 during conference play). 

As for Arizona State, its subpar offense is a big reason for a 3-9 conference record thus far. The Sun Devils are averaging 68.2 PPG against Big 12 opponents and just 63.2 PPG in road conference games this year. They're struggling offensively in almost every facet right now, ranking towards the bottom of the league in three-point shooting, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, block rate, and two-point shooting. 

Texas Tech is good enough defensively to limit Arizona State's offense and keep the pace slow. Plus, ASU could be down multiple starters tonight. Talented freshman Jayden Quaintance is at least out with an ankle injury. Seniors BJ Freeman and Adam Miller were both suspended last game and may or may not play today. 

The only question is how much the Red Raiders will score themselves. Well, ASU is actually respectable defensively. The Sun Devils rank 41st and 56th nationally in defensive efficiency and opposing effective field goal percentage, respectively. They're also allowing just a 30.6% three-point shooting rate (33rd in the country). 

The Under is 4-2 in Texas Tech's home games during Big 12 play. Meanwhile, the Under is 5-1 in Arizona State's road conference games so far. 

Pick: Under 143.5 Total Points (-115)

Ole Miss (-5.5) at South Carolina - O/U 138.5 (-110/-110)

Our final college basketball pick today brings us to an SEC matchup between Ole Miss and South Carolina. On paper, the Rebels are clearly the better team and a tier or two above the Gamecocks at this point. Even so, we're looking at the home underdog to keep things close. 

Ole Miss is 18-6 overall and 7-4 in conference play. Chris Beard's squad is a top 20-25 team in the country and could easily be a darkhorse Sweet Sixteen team come March. Meanwhile, South Carolina is still winless in the SEC and on a 10-game losing streak. 

Honestly, Ole Miss has the edge in nearly every statistical category for this matchup. The case for South Carolina is a weak one. However, we're playing a few situational, motivational, and betting trend angles here. 

This is a prime letdown and look-ahead sandwich spot for Mississippi. The Rebels just pulled off an improbable win on the road at LSU on Saturday, overcoming an 11-point deficit with three minutes to go. Playing a second straight road game after such a massive come-from-behind victory is a tough ask. 

Ole Miss then has a home matchup against in-state rival Mississippi State coming up this weekend. The Rebels lost in overtime a month ago in the first meeting vs. Mississippi State and will be out for revenge. That motivational aspect, combined with the recent comeback win, could easily have South Carolina going overlooked here. 

As for South Carolina, it's been a notably tougher opponent at home. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS at home in SEC play compared to 1-4 ATS on the road. They lost by four points to Texas A&M, in overtime to Mississippi State, by one to Florida, and by three to Auburn in their past four home games. Those are four top-tier SEC teams and South Carolina hung around with each. 

On the flip side, Ole Miss is just 1-5 ATS over its last six games. The Rebels have been a bit overrated in the betting markets lately and it's bound to catch up with them. They've also failed to cover two straight road games coming into tonight. 

Pick: South Carolina +5.5 (-115)