Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (2/19)

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The 2024-25 college basketball season rolls on with another loaded Wednesday night of games to wager on. Our top men’s college basketball bets today feature a massive Mountain West matchup between New Mexico and Boise State. Plus, we lock in picks for Gonzaga vs. Washington State in the West Coast Conference and then Oregon vs. Iowa in the Big Ten. 

Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, February 19.

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NBA DraftKings 2025

Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

New Mexico at Boise State (-2.5) - O/U 151.5 (-110/-110)

One of Wednesday night’s best college basketball games takes us to the Mountain West. Two of the conference's top teams go head-to-head as Boise State hosts New Mexico. Let's break down the late-night matchup to find an edge. 

New Mexico is rolling this season with a 22-4 record overall and 14-1 in conference play. The Lobos are on an eight-game winning streak and in sole possession of first place in the Mountain West standings heading into tonight. Even so, this is the ideal time to fade them on the road. 

It's a prime bounce-back opportunity for Boise State after suffering a 17-point loss on the road at San Diego State over the weekend. The Broncos have responded well after losing, going 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in games following a loss this season. Plus, Boise is currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble and needs another quality win or two to boost their resume. 

Boise State is also 8-3 ATS at home this season and 5-2 ATS at home in conference play. The Broncos, especially after losing in blowout fashion, should be dialed into a revenge game as well here. They lost by 19 points at New Mexico a month ago and now get to host this rematch. 

As for New Mexico, this is a possible letdown spot. A huge home win vs. Utah State on Sunday gave the Lobos a two-game lead for the Mountain West regular season title. Plus, they enter this game after needing double-digit comebacks to beat both Utah State and Wyoming in the last two games.

If New Mexico gets down tonight, mounting a third straight comeback will be tough. Boise State is giving up only 59.6 PPG at home in conference play with 60 points or fewer allowed in six of seven games. The Broncos are also the best rebounding team in the Mountain West and third nationally in defensive rebounding rate. They're elite at limiting second-chance points. 

Offensively, Boise State avoids steals at the best rate in the Mountain West. If the Broncos aren't gifting turnovers while dominating the glass on both ends, then New Mexico could be in trouble. Boise's slow pace (242nd in Division I) is also a notable contrast to the Lobos' preferred lightning-quick tempo (5th in DI). 

Another key factor is the status of New Mexico forward Mustapha Amzil. He's missed two of the last three games with plantar fasciitis and could be out or limited again tonight. His absence is a bigger deal against Boise's length and size at multiple positions, especially when trying to slow down Broncos’ stud big man, Tyson Degenhart. 

Pick: Boise State -2.5 (-115)

Gonzaga (-13.5) at Washington State - O/U 163.5 (-115/-105)

Gonzaga isn't having the same dominant season we're used to seeing. Mark Few's squad is off to its worst start since 2011. Yet, the Zags are still one of the sport's elite teams. They rank 10th in the NET Rankings, 11th at KenPom, and 15th at BartTorvik. Gonzaga has tripped up against tough opponents but regularly takes care of business vs. easier competition. 

This may seem like a trap spot at Washington State with St. Mary's on deck this weekend. However, the opposite has been true with Gonzaga taking advantage of tune-up matchups before taking on its rival. Over the past seven seasons, the Zags are 10-3 ATS in regular season games right before facing St. Mary's - including 8-0 ATS in the past instances. 

Gonzaga has admittedly been a bit overvalued in the betting market this year with a 10-17 ATS record, including 4-10 ATS in conference play. That creates a slight buy-low opportunity for positive regression to their spread covering. 

Washington State is struggling lately, losing six of its last seven games coming into tonight. The Cougars are also just 1-6 ATS in this stretch. They just lost by 21 points to St. Mary's and will have issues getting back on track in a second straight tough matchup. 

Gonzaga owns a massive advantage in the paint offensively. The Zags are elite at scoring inside, ranking 14th nationally and first in the West Coast Conference in two-point offense. Meanwhile, Washington State's two-point defense ranks 240th in the country and dead last in the league. 

The Cougars are also a poor defensive rebounding team, ranking 304th among Division I teams. That's an issue against Gonzaga's frontcourt combo of Graham Ike, Braden Huff, Ben Gregg, and Michael Ayayi - who are all good offensive rebounders. Ike, especially, will be a problem inside. He scored 21 points and was nearly unstoppable in the January meeting vs. Washington State. 

Speaking of that prior meeting, it deserves important context. Gonzaga won 88-75, failing to cover as 17.5-point home favorites. However, the Zags led by 23 points with five minutes to go before taking their foot off the gas. Washington State shot 38.1% from three and 61.5% from the field in that game. 

Chances are, the Cougars won't have as much offensive success this time around - even at home. They're averaging only 68 PPG over the past seven games and Gonzaga is holding opponents to a 29.7% three-point shooting percentage this season (18th in DI). The Zags also rank 18th nationally in defensive rebounding rate and boast the best defensive steal rate in the West Coast Conference. 

Finally, Gonzaga has a notable edge in the turnover department. Washington State's offensive turnover and steal rates rank 342nd and 297th in the country, respectively. The Cougars are also dead last in the conference in both. Gonzaga, on the flip side, is 8th nationally in offensive turnover rate and 12th in offensive steal rate. 

It's always tough backing a large favorite on the road, especially when the Zags haven't been coving spreads. Still, the stats and matchups all point to Gonzaga winning comfortably. 

Pick: Gonzaga -13.5 (-102) 

Oregon at Iowa (-1.5) - O/U 160.5 (-115/-105)

Let's wrap things up with a Big Ten matchup between Oregon and Iowa. As the spread and total suggest, this should be a back-and-forth contest with plenty of points. Let's at least count on the latter as we grab the Over. 

Iowa's style of play naturally leads to high-scoring games. The Hawkeyes play at the 26th-quickest pace in the country and rank 11th nationally in offensive tempo. They're also a top-30 offense in the spot, per KenPom. Simply put, Iowa loves to run the court and score fast - and they do it pretty well. 

Fran McCaffery's squad is shooting 37.5% from three-point range (30th in Division I) and 57.8% on two-pointers (12th). Iowa also boasts the lowest offensive turnover and block rates in the Big Ten this year, ranking 10th and 21st nationally in those categories, respectively. That's key at home when facing an Oregon defense that's just average in both areas. 

Bank on Iowa to dictate the uptempo flow and be efficient offensively at home here. The Hawkeyes have been inconsistent on offense recently but should be better tonight after returning home from an East Coast trip. 

Speaking of that trip, Iowa's defense just gave up 101 points to Maryland over the weekend. That's the other end of the coin for the Hawkeyes. They rank dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, defensive rebounding, three-point defense, two-point defense, and effective field goal percentage allowed. Not great, Bob! 

Oregon has also been up and down offensively, but this is a great matchup. The Ducks are averaging 75.4 PPG over the past five games and can exceed that number in a fast-paced game against a poor defense. They rank 36th nationally in offensive efficiency this season and are shooting an above-average 35.2% from three in conference play. 

Meanwhile, Oregon has its own holes on defense. The Ducks rank 12th out of 18 Big Ten teams in opposing effective field goal percentage while allowing a 36.2% three-point rate in conference play (13th). Their defense has especially struggled on the road lately, allowing 80.4 PPG over the last five away games. 

Pick: Over 160.5 Total Points (-115)