Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/12)

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Conference tournament season is finally upon us. Whether you want to wager on the power conferences, mid-majors or somewhere in between, we have you covered on this Wednesday slate. Our top men’s college basketball picks today begin with an SEC Tournament matchup between Mississippi State and LSU.

Wyoming vs. San Jose State makes for an intriguing first-round game in the Mountain West Tournament. Finally, let’s wrap it up with a MEAC Tournament battle between South Carolina State and Coppin State because why not?

Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 12.

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LSU vs. Mississippi State (-8.5) | O/U 146.5 (-115/-105)

The SEC Tournament gets underway today with four first-round matchups from Nashville. Let's focus on one of those as Mississippi State takes on LSU. The Bulldogs may be the No. 10 seed in the bracket, but they're still a clear tier above the Tigers and should advance comfortably. 

Mississippi State ranks 34th in NET Rankings, 32nd at KenPom and 35th at BartTorvik heading into this game. Its 8-10 conference record is more a result of how loaded the SEC is than their own detriments. The Bulldogs are 21st nationally in offensive efficiency and 51st in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. 

Meanwhile, LSU is arguably the worst team in the SEC. It finished one game ahead of last place South Carolina but rates out worse at KenPom and BartTorvik. The Tigers also have the second-worst offensive and defensive efficiencies in the conference. 

LSU went 3-15 in league play with 11 of those 15 losses coming by double digits. The Tigers have suffered three straight double-digit losses coming into today. Their only SEC wins this year were at home against South Carolina, on the road against a bubble Oklahoma team and at home vs. Arkansas back in January (before the Razorbacks turned things around). 

Mississippi State has lost four of its last five games coming in but gets a gift of a matchup in this first round. However, its last two losses were by one point at Arkansas and in overtime to Texas. It's get-right time for the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State beat LSU by 12 points a couple of weeks ago, covering as double-digit home favorites. In that game, the Bulldogs exploited the Tigers' defensive issues with 81 points on 73.3% shooting. They had no answer for stud guard Josh Hubbard, who put up 30 points. 

LSU was also held to just 69 points in the loss while shooting 25% from three-point range. Mississippi State's defense forced 11 turnovers and controlled the paint with seven blocks and 28 defensive rebounds. That all tracks since the Tigers rank 323rd nationally in three-point percentage and 272nd in offensive turnover rate. Plus, they're 14th in the SEC in offensive rebounding. 

On the other side, Mississippi State should have similar offensive success. LSU ranks 347th in the country in defensive rebounding rate and 230th in defensive turnover rate. Its defense also funnels scoring inside, which is where the Bulldogs thrive, scoring from two-point range at the highest clip in the SEC. 

Pick: Mississippi State -8.5 (-110)

Wyoming vs. San Jose State (-1.5) | O/U 134.5 (-115/-105)

The first round of the Mountain West Tournament tips off today with a trio of matchups. Wyoming faces San Jose State in the early game and it's an intriguing spot to target one particular side. 

During the regular season, San Jose State went 2-0 against Wyoming and won both by nine points apiece. The Spartans may have finished just two games ahead of the Cowboys in the league standings, but the former was much more competitive this season. 

San Jose State struggled against the top half of the Mountain West but took care of business against the conference's bottom-dwellers. The Spartans went 6-0 straight up (SU) and 5-0-1 against the spread (ATS) against the league's bottom three teams, including Wyoming. They also upset New Mexico and nearly did the same to Boise State and San Diego State (twice). 

Wyoming has only one win since the beginning of February and it's 1-9 over the last 10 games coming into today. The Cowboys truly limped to the finish line, going 2-6 ATS over the last eight, and just lost to lowly Fresno State in the regular-season finale. Conversely, San Jose State smashed Fresno by 24 points this past Saturday. 

The Spartans boast a stellar 20-9-1 ATS record overall this year. That 69% cover rate is the best in the Mountain West and top 10 among all Division I teams. They're also 7-2-1 ATS as favorites this season. 

San Jose State's lineup just got a big boost as senior guard Donavan Yap and junior center Robert Vaihola returned from injury last game. Both starters had huge performances with Yap scoring 30 points and Vaihola going for 13 points and 19 rebounds. Their returns make the Spartans notably more versatile and better on both ends of the court. 

In today's game, the free throw and turnover margins can both be difference-makers. Wyoming is shooting an ugly 65.4% from the line (349th in Division I) while San Jose State has a 73% free-throw percentage. The Cowboys get to the charity stripe at the lowest rate in the conference and also give up the league's highest rate of free-throw attempts. 

Wyoming ranks 327th nationally in offensive turnover rate and 296th in defensive turnover rate. Though San Jose State isn't great on that front either, it can still win the turnover battle here. In these teams' last meeting, the Spartans forced 15 turnovers with 10 steals as they took the game over in the second half. 

Pick: San Jose State -1.5 (-104)

Coppin State vs. South Carolina State (-14.5) | O/U 139.5 (-110/-110)

Power conference tournaments are dominating college basketball headlines this week. However, we still have a ton of NCAA Tournament bids to hand out from the mid-major ranks across the country. Let's turn our attention to the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) as the South Carolina State Bulldogs take on the Coppin State Eagles. 

There's a clear team to back in this matchup and only us diehards will have action on it. The MEAC was a two-horse race with South Carolina State and Norfolk State finishing as co-champs in the regular season with 11-3 league records. It would be a big upset if neither team won the MEAC Tournament. 

South Carolina State's quest begins tonight in a cupcake matchup. Coppin State went 6-23 this season and 4-10 in league play. Eight of their 10 conference losses came by double-digits as well in one of the country's worst leagues overall. Out of 364 Division I teams, the Eagles rank 360th in NET Rankings and 362nd at KenPom. Yikes.

Meanwhile, South Carolina State is riding a nine-game winning streak coming into today. The Bulldogs are 195th in NET Rankings and 191st at KenPom. Those aren't great numbers either but they're miles ahead of the rest of the MEAC. 

South Carolina State boasts the best defensive efficiency in the MEAC while also leading the conference in defensive turnover and steal rates. That's trouble for Coppin State, which is last in offensive turnover rate. The Eagles' offense is also dead last in the MEAC in efficiency, block rate, rebounding rate and steal rate. 

It's hard to imagine Coppin State scoring much in this matchup. That was the case last month when it lost by 30 to South Carolina State and mustered only 57 points. The Eagles also suffered an 18-point home loss to the Bulldogs earlier in the year. 

On the other end of the court, South Carolina State ranks 28th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. It's fifth among all Division I schools in free-throw attempts rate. The catalyst for both stats is dominant center Drayton Jones. He will control the paint on both ends tonight to anchor a comfortable victory. 

If you're scared off by the large spread, check out these trends. South Carolina State is 13-2-1 ATS as a favorite this season, including 6-1-1 ATS as a road/neutral favorite. It's also 10-3-1 ATS in conference play. Coppin State has lost by 24 and 17 points in the conference tournament opener over the past two years. 

Pick: South Carolina State -14.5 (-120)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: