Top 3 College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/5)

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We’re into the final week of the 2024-25 Men's College Basketball regular season. Wednesday night brings along another loaded slate of games to wager on.

Let’s kick off today’s top men’s college basketball bets with a Big East showdown between UConn and Marquette. Plus, we lock in picks for Missouri vs. Oklahoma in the SEC and then Wisconsin vs. Minnesota in the Big Ten. 

Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 5.

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Wednesday's Best College Basketball Bets

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Marquette at Connecticut (-3.5) - O/U 144.5 (-115/-105)

Connecticut's quest for the three-peat has not gone exactly as planned so far. The Huskies have suffered six losses in Big East play already and are projected to be an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Tonight, though, presents a big opportunity for a resume-boosting win with Marquette coming to town. 

This is UConn's last chance ahead of the Big East Tournament to beat a respectable opponent. That means more for a team that could potentially have to play a No. 1 seed in the second round of March Madness based on current seeding. The Huskies are just 4-5 in Quad 1 games but can get a statement victory here. 

Marquette, meanwhile, has struggled against the top tier of the Big East. It's 1-5 straight up and against the spread (ATS) in the last six matchups against the conference's other top-five teams. The Golden Eagles lost by double-digits on the road at Villanova and Creighton in the past two instances. They're also just 1-7 ATS when facing the Big East's top half. 

Believe it or not, UConn is 0-8 ATS at home in conference play so far. The Huskies are overdue for a convincing home victory against a quality Big East opponent. Marquette is just 1-4 ATS as a road underdog this year, losing those four games by an average of 8.8 PPG. 

Furthermore, Connecticut has dominated this matchup in recent years. UConn is 7-2 SU and ATS vs. Marquette in the past nine meetings since Shaka Smart became the latter's head coach. Dan Hurley is also 4-0 SU and ATS at home against the Golden Eagles, winning the last two meetings by 28 and 25 points. 

As for the X's and O's tonight, UConn's presence inside on both offense and defense can be the difference tonight. The Huskies rank 12th nationally in two-point shooting percentage and 39th in offensive rebounding rate (both second in Big East). Marquette is 211th in two-point defense and 222nd in defensive rebounding.

The Huskies are also 15th in the country in opposing two-point shooting percentage and 2nd in defensive block rate. Marquette's lack of size to combat Tarris Reed and Samson Johnson in the paint is a bit worrisome here. Plus, the Golden Eagles' offense tends to be too reliant on Kam Jones at times. 

Finally, two of UConn's defensive issues are also two of Marquette's main weaknesses on offense - three-point shooting and getting to the foul line. The Golden Eagles rank 224th and 345th in the country, respectively, in three-point percentage and free throw attempt rate. 

Connecticut beat Marquette, 77-69, on the road a month ago. That was without stud freshman Liam McNeeley in the Huskies' lineup as well. All of the stats and trends point to Hurley's team taking care of business at home for the rematch. 

Pick: UConn -3.5 (-110)

Missouri (-4.5) at Oklahoma - O/U 161.5 (-110/-110)

The SEC has seen a ton of high-scoring games this season. We should get another one tonight as Oklahoma hosts Missouri in an uptempo and offensive-minded battle. Let's target the Over with plenty of points expected from both sides. 

Missouri boasts one of the best offenses in the sport. The Tigers rank 5th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, while averaging 84.6 PPG (7th). They're shooting 37.6% from three-point range (22nd) and 57.1% on two-pointers (18th). This is an elite attack that can score from all three levels. 

The Missouri offense should do its thing against a struggling Oklahoma defense that's 13th in the SEC in defense efficiency. The Sooners have allowed at least 82 points in six straight games coming in. They rank 325th nationally in two-point defense, 260th in defensive rebounding rate, and 257th in free throw attempts allowed rate. Those are worrisome numbers in this matchup. 

When Mizzou played Oklahoma earlier this season, it scored 82 points while shooting 61.1% from the floor. Even on the road here, we should see a similar offensive performance. The Sooners are giving up 76 PPG at home in conference play with 82+ allowed in three straight home contests.  

On the other side, Oklahoma can score its fair share as well. The Sooners are averaging 79.5 PPG at home in conference play and are 29th nationally in offensive efficiency. They're shooting 36.6% from three this year and rank 11th in the country in free throw percentage. Meanwhile, Missouri's defense is allowing 79.9 PPG on the road.  

Furthermore, we have two teams that like to play fast and are both coming off losses. That situation should boost the offensive intensity. Oklahoma, in particular, desperately needs a victory to improve its NCAA Tournament bubble resume after going 1-6 in the past seven games. 

Finally, we have multiple favorable trends pointing towards the over. Oklahoma is 11-5 to the Over at home this year, including 7-1 at home in SEC play. Missouri is 7-2 to the Over on the road this season and 8-2 to the Over in the last 10 games. 

Pick: Over 161.5 Total Points (-110)

Wisconsin (-7.5) at Minnesota - O/U 139.5 (-105/-115)

After losing to Michigan State on Sunday, Wisconsin will look to get back on track tonight. It's an ideal spot against a struggling Minnesota team that's 7-11 in conference play. Even on the road, the Badgers should rebound with a convincing win against an inferior opponent. 

This is a mismatch in many ways. Wisconsin is second and third in the Big Ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. The Badgers are shooting 36.7% from three in conference play and are 18th nationally in offensive turnover rate. They also boast the best free-throw shooting percentage in the entire country (83.3%). 

Minnesota, on the other hand, is 15th on offense and 16th on defense. It's shooting a paltry 32.6% from three this season (236th in Division I) and 66.6% from the free-throw line (334th). The Golden Gophers rank 241st nationally in defensive turnover rate and are allowing opponents to shoot 35.6% from three (284th). 

It all points to an easy bounce-back victory for Wisconsin. Those mismatches were on full display in these teams' previous matchup when the Badgers won by 21 points back in January. Yes, that was at home but they still covered as double-digit favorites. 

Wisconsin has responded well after losses this year. It's 5-1 ATS after a loss so far, covering four straight games in this spot. Conversely, Minnesota is 3-10-1 ATS after a win this year. That 23% cover rate is the second-worst mark among power conference teams. The Golden Gophers, even at home, could be in for a letdown after upsetting Nebraska on the road last time out. 

Minnesota is also just 4-13-1 ATS at home this season. The Gophers have lost their last three home games by 11, 9, and 21 points, as well. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 7-2 ATS on the road in conference play and 10-3 ATS in road/neutral games overall this year. 

Pick: Wisconsin -7.5 (-102)