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Top 3 College Football Picks & Predictions: Arizona vs. Colorado (Week 11)

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Prime Numbers takes a weekly look at the best bets in the upcoming Colorado Buffaloes game. Coach Prime and his Buffs took another one on the chin last week, but if you tailed my picks, you went 3-0. Let’s keep the good times rolling at the betting window even if they’ve long-ceased rolling in the Rocky Mountains. Kickoff for this Pac-12 battle is set for 2:00 pm EST (noon MST) in Boulder, CO.

Last Week: 3-0-0

2023 Season: 15-11-0

PRIME NUMBERS: Week 11 – #21 Arizona Wildcats (6-3, 4-2) at Colorado Buffaloes (4-5, 1-5)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

1 – Arizona Moneyline (-385)

The Arizona Wildcats are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Pac-12, coming fresh off a 27-10 victory over a UCLA team that had easily dispatched the Buffs in the prior week. The Wildcats are also Colorado’s third-straight ranked opponent and sixth of the season, and the Buffs have gone a combined 1-4 with an average losing score of 37.2-25.8. Take away the “Surprise, we’re here” season-opening victory over a then-27th-ranked and currently 4-5 TCU Horned Frogs and that average score becomes an even-worse 36.0-20.5.

Steer clear of the temptation from these numbers to give you the 10.5 points; as I’ve talked about previously this season, the Buffs cover through the back door too much to ever feel comfortable giving them points at all, let alone double digits. The Colorado opponents’ moneyline has cashed in three straight and five of the last six games. Coach Prime’s baked-in fan base continues to artificially inflate the odds, so smart bettors will continue to take the free money.

Coach Prime and company will try and play spoiler, but until they actually do more than backdoor cover a spread for the first time in more than a month, I will continue to fade them.

2 – Under 54.5 Total Points (-110)

Once again, I’m going back to the Under well and I’m still going to drink until I’ve had my fill… or it fails to hit. Colorado’s nine games this season would have an O/U record of 4-5 against this 54.5-point total. If you take into account their two overtime games, Colorado has only had one regulation game go over 51 points since Week 1. I don’t foresee this game going past 60 minutes, so despite the drastic drop (the O/U for Colorado games had steadily been in the low- to mid-60s in the weeks prior), I still see this game coming in under 55.

Arizona is ranked and has increasingly large bowl hopes in their eyes. They are going to try and shorten this game, take the road victory, and look to finish the season strong. Arizona has seen their game totals go under 54.5 in three straight contests and six of nine overall. Of the three Arizona games this season that have gone over 54.5, two of them totaled exactly 55 and the other was an outlier of 84 points against USC, who is coincidentally Colorado’s lone regulation game to hit over 54.5 since Week 1.

Neither team is USC, so all signs point toward the Under in this one.

3 – Jonah Coleman 60+ Rush Yards (-148)

Coleman leads the Wildcats with 565 rushing yards on 93 attempts and has been averaging 62.8 yards per contest this season. Coleman will face the Buffaloes’ 97th-ranked rushing defense, which allows 4.47 yards per carry and 163.8 yards per game on the ground, along with 17 rushing touchdowns (nearly two per game). This poor rushing defense coupled with a rushing prop lower than his season average makes this a recipe for an easy cover.

Coleman has eclipsed 60 yards in five of his last seven games and averaged 4.5+ yards per carry in six of those seven games. He averages 6.1 YPC on the season and has averaged 14.2 carries over his last six games, giving him a loose projection of 86.62 yards, making this an easy cover, as has been the case against the Colorado defense all season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports. For more from Luke, check out his archive.

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