Top 3 College Football Picks & Predictions: Colorado vs. Arizona State (Week 6)
Prime Numbers takes a weekly look at the best bets in the upcoming Colorado Buffalos game. Coach Prime takes his twice-humbled Buffalos back on the road to Arizona State still searching for his first Pac-12 victory. Even if Coach Prime didn’t win last week, if you tailed me you did. Prime Numbers went 3-1 and if not for foolish second-half playcalling by USC, we would have been 4-0. Let’s try for 3-0 with this week’s Prime Numbers!
Last Week: 3-1-0
2023 Season: 9-5-0
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PRIME NUMBERS: Week 6 – Colorado Buffaloes (3-2, 0-2) at Arizona State Sun Devils (1-4, 0-2)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
1 – Colorado 1H -2.5 (-118)
After being punched in the mouth early for two straight games, I think Coach Prime has his Buffs come out and send a message and carry a lead into halftime in Tempe. The first-quarter spread might seem tempting and I’ve seen this spread as low as -0.5 at some sports books, but ASU has been better early and faded towards halftime and beyond this season. Arizona State is 2-2 straight up in 1Q this season and while they have lost two straight 1Qs, on the season, they have only been outscored 24-21 in the first quarter this season. In contrast, ASU has not taken any kind of lead to halftime since Week 2 against Oklahoma State (a game they would ultimately lose) and in the last three games, the closest the Sun Devils have been at halftime is three last week against Cal, which would have still hit this number. This is a nice bet that should provide a nice bankroll boost that pays out at halftime rather than end of the game!
2 – Shedeur Sanders 325+ Passing Yards (-192)
Sanders has hit this number in five of six games this season with the lone under coming in Colorado’s Icarus-like fall to Earth against Oregon, one of the top defenses in the country. Sanders averages 356.2 passing yards/game this season and if you take away the outlier 159-yard dud of a Ducks game, that number jumps to 405.5 so he should cruise paste this number. In fact, Sanders’ 350+ Passing Yards prop is paying –112 and that number has hit in four of six games, with the other under missing by just two yards at 348, so if you dare, go for that nearly even odds value. To me, the number is 325 and the -192 odds offer slightly more value than the +2.5 Passing TDs prop (-200) and I see this prop as “easier†to hit as pure volume number rather than needing specifically at least three passing touchdowns. Colorado runs just enough to give Sanders’ arm little bits of rest throughout the game so even when up they will continue to pass. The Buffaloes’ offense has put up exactly 2,200 yards of total offense through five games for a 440.0 average. Of that, 1,784 are passing yards compared to 416 rushing yards, meaning passing accounts for over 81% of their total offense. Colorado’s lack of run game is more of a product of less-than-stellar offensive line play and less about talent as Dylan Edwards and his four-touchdown performance in Colorado’s season-opening upset of TCU can attest. Ironically, even three of those touchdowns were receiving scores. Sanders should soar past this number making it the best bet.
3 – Colorado -4.5 (-104)
Colorado is 3-2 on the season straight up and 2-3 ATS, however, they are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS against unranked opponents. That one unranked ATS loss was a failure to cover an inflated 23-point spread against Colorado State, a number he can be forgiven for not covering. Two of Colorado’s three victories (both wins vs unranked opp) have covered this -4.5 number so I like for this number to hit as Colorado gets back on the winning track easily. Coach Prime will pick up his first Pac-12 dub and clear this one-win ASU team by more than a touchdown. Keep an eye on this spread because this nearly even odds value should be jumped on while you can.
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports. For more from Luke, check out his archive.