Top 3 MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Friday, August 19 (2022)
We’ve got a full slate of games in the MLB for Friday, August 19.
Everyone wants to start off the weekend with a bang, so here are three of my favorite plays in the MLB tonight.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Although the Tampa Bay Rays went crazy offensively in the second half of yesterday’s game, I’m still not a fan of either offense. Plus, with two exceptional pitchers on the mound, runs will be at a premium.
Brady Singer will take the hill for the Royals. He has a 3.53 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out over 30% of batters faced in that time period. On top of that, Singer has limited walks to 5.6% in the last month and has done a great job limiting extra-base hits against both sides of the plate.
The projected lineup for Tampa Bay is hitting a .137 ISO with a wOBA of .313 against righties in the last 30 days. These are simply below-average numbers going up against a pitcher that has posted above-average numbers in the same time frame.
On the other hand. Shane McClanahan will get the start for the Rays. He has a 4.13 xFIP in the last 30 days but has still induced 45.3% of ground balls when balls are batted into play. The Royals rarely hit ground balls against lefties but could end up hitting more in tonight’s game against McClanahan.
And while McClanahan’s strikeout numbers are down, we can expect a higher number tonight, knowing the Royals have struck out 26.6% of the time with their projected lineup in the last 30 days against lefties.
Therefore, I’m taking a low under of 6.5 for tonight’s game.
Bet: Under 6.5 (+105 at DraftKings)
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
The Houston Astros scored 21 runs in yesterday’s game and now find themselves as underdogs in tonight’s game? I’m not so sure about that.
Kyle Wright will take the hill for the Braves, and there are concerns that he will start to fatigue as we get deeper into the second half of the season. He’s been really good recently, holding an xFIP of 3.24 in the last month on the mound. He’s also inducing close to 60% of ground balls when balls are batted into play.
But he’s struggled a bit against lefties, allowing a .362 wOBA and ISO of .274 to his last 67 lefties. He’s probably not going to enjoy facing Yordan Alvarez and a red-hot Kyle Tucker.
On the other hand, Lance McCullers will make his second start of the season since coming off the injured list. In his first game back, he finished with a 3.55 xFIP and struck out 23,8% of batters faced.
Last season, McCullers finished with a 3.81 xFIP and has 27.7% of strikeouts along with 57.3% of ground balls induced. Don’t forget about how good McCullers really is.
Take the Astros on the moneyline tonight.
Bet: Astros (+105 at DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Alex Wood will take the hill for the Giants as they look to start a new win streak against the Rockies. Wood is a left-hander who has struck out 24.6% of batters in the last 30 days. He’s also walked about 5% of batters in that same time frame.
Anyway, he’ll take on a Rockies lineup that has struggled badly against lefties. Although the entire lineup will be right-handed, the Rockies have hit a .128 ISO with a wOBA of .267 in the last 30 days against lefties with their projected lineup.
On the other hand, Jose Urena will get the call for the Rockies with his below-average numbers in the last 30 days. Urena has a 4.78 xFIP in the last 30 days while only striking out 13.3% of batters faced.
He’s also allowed 25.4% of line drives in the last 30 days and will take on a Giants lineup that has four players hitting line drives at least 23% of the time against righties in the last month.
The Giants lose when they strike out. When they’re putting balls in play, they’re winning. That sounds obvious. That’s how it is for most teams in baseball. Urena’s strikeouts are low, and his walks are high. If the Giants can minimize strikeouts and score with runners in scoring position, they’ll win this game by multiple runs.
I’m on the Giants -1.5 in this one.
Bet: Giants -1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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