Top 3 MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Friday, July 29 (2022)

Yesterday, we hit a massive Same-Game Parlay in the Phillies game to get us profitable on the week. After adding that profit to the mix, we’ll take it much slower over the weekend and play some straight bets.

Let’s add to the profit.

Here are my top three bets for tonight’s MLB slate.

• MLB Same Game Parlay Picks
• Top 3 MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
• Top 3 MLB Player Props Picks
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals

The St. Louis Cardinals will be getting back Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado for St. Louis’ road series against the Nationals. The Cardinals are no longer in Toronto, meaning those two unvaccinated superstars will be back in the lineup for good.

The Nationals will send out Anibal Sanchez, who has a 5.28 xFIP in the last 30 days. In these 30 days, he’s also walked 9.8% of batters and has struggled against righties, even as a right-handed pitcher.

Righties are hitting a .594 wOBA and ISO of .462 in their last 16 plate appearances against Sanchez. Clearly, this isn’t the biggest sample size, but Goldschmidt and Arenado are difference makers for the Cardinals’ lineup and should have success against Sanchez.

On the other hand, Miles Mikolas will take the hill for the Cardinals. He has a 4.54 xFIP in the last 30 days and hasn’t been getting many strikeouts. However, he’s pitching against a Nationals team with a .134 ISO and wOBA of .311. The walks are down for Mikolas recently, which should keep on-base averages down for the Nationals against Mikolas. The right-hander has struggled more with power, but, again, the Nationals have a .134 ISO as a lineup.

Back the Cardinals with the juice at -175.

Bet: Cardinals (-175 at DraftKings) 

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are -365 favorites against the Detroit Tigers tonight. That’s pretty telling, but we’ve seen the Blue Jays lose as heavy favorites like this before.

Tonight, it’s not happening. The Blue Jays will face Bryan Garcia, who will be making his 2022 debut tonight. In 2021, he finished the season with a 6.68 xFIP while allowing 13.3% of batters faced to be walked. He struggled against lefties and righties and just couldn’t get many outs.

The Blue Jays are hitting a .169 ISO and wOBA of .381 against righties in the last 30 days. George Springer won’t be available for the Blue Jays, but the lineup still checks out very well.

But even the Blue Jays at -1.5 is sitting at -175. That’s heavy juice for a run-line bet. Therefore, the only direction I will go is by taking the Blue Jays on the team total. I’m seeing the Blue Jays Over 2.5 in the first five innings at -145. That’s the juice I’m willing to pay.

Take the Blue Jays to score three runs in the first five innings against Bryan Garcia.

Bet: Blue Jays Over 2.5 F5 TT (-145 at DraftKings)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox

The Brewers will send Brandon Woodruff to the mound for tonight’s game against the Red Sox. He has a 3.94 xFIP in the last 30 days and has struck out 29.6% of batters in that time frame.

Woodruff has been elite since coming off the injured list, which likely continues tonight against the Red Sox. Boston is hitting a .139 ISO and wOBA of .274 against righties in the last 30 days and have struck out 26.7% of the time with their projected lineup in that same time frame.

Meanwhile, Bryan Bello will get the start for the Red Sox. Bello has a bright future, but he might not be ready yet. In the last 30 days, Bello has had a 5.22 xFIP and has been unlucky with a BABIP of .478.

That BABIP number will start to trend downward as he continues to pitch, but Bello is not earning a lot of strikeouts and is giving up plenty of walks as of late.

Milwaukee has a .231 ISO and wOBA of .347 against righties with their projected lineup in the last month of baseball and should be able to give Woodruff some wiggle room early.

Take the Brewers -.5 in the first five innings at -120.

Bet: Brewers -0.5 F5 (-120 at DraftKings)

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