Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/12)
There are several high-profile series to monitor around Major League Baseball this weekend, starting with two between teams that figure to be fighting it out all year for a division title (Twins-Tigers and Rangers-Astros). Elsewhere, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers kick off a three-game series. While the NL West race does not figure to be as competitive as the races in the AL Central or AL West, this rivalry has blossomed into arguably the most intense in the NL West.
Do any of these three games make our best bets article? Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, April 12.
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Friday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+142) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-168) | 9 O/U (-115/-105)
Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pittsburgh Pirates and faces his former team. He went 10-14 in under three seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Pirates took a shot on Falter, despite him beginning last season 0-7 through eight appearances (seven starts), and now he gets to prove at Citizens Bank Park why it was wrong for Philadelphia to give up on him so early.
Bet: Pirates Moneyline (+142)
Colorado Rockies (+194) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-235) | 8 O/U (-105/-115)
Before Toronto Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman’s blow-up against the New York Yankees, he had the second-best odds at BetMGM to win the AL Cy Young Award. His odds are now seventh-best at DraftKings after he allowed six runs on four hits in just 1 1/3 innings against the Yankees in his last start.
As Mike Petriello points out, a big issue is his significant drop in velocity on his two primary pitches:
While the Colorado Rockies do not pack as much punch in their lineup as the Yankees, they have still averaged 4.2 runs per game and should be able to equal or better that average against a struggling Gausman. Meanwhile, Toronto should struggle offensively against Ryan Feltner, who comes into this start with a 2.62 xERA and an xBA and xSLG of .177 and .294, respectively.
Colorado has been absolutely dreadful on the road, going 13-46 SU in its last 59 road games (-24.55 units, -42% ROI), but the Blue Jays are just 31-35 SU in their last 66 home games (-22.60 units, -21% ROI). This makes the Rockies a great value play with all the concerns surrounding Gausman.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline (+194)
Texas Rangers (+116) @ Houston Astros (-136) | 9.5 O/U (-102/-120)
Because of imbalanced scheduling, Texas Rangers righty Dane Dunning makes his second straight start against the Houston Astros, and the advantage typically switches to the hitters when facing a pitcher that frequently in a short span. Dunning only allowed four hits in 6 2/3 innings against the Astros, but his three walks (he has seven walks total in two starts this season) hurt him en route to allowing three earned runs in what was his first loss of the season.
Dunning pitched to a 4.48 xERA last season (much higher than his actual 3.70 ERA), and before his last start, the Astros had collectively batted .308 against him with seven extra-base hits in 91 combined at-bats. While Texas’ bullpen (15th in ERA, 19th in FIP) has been much better than Houston’s to this point (24th in ERA, 26th in FIP), that is why we are limiting this wager to the first five innings, even though the Astros have dominated the Rangers with a 23-9 head-to-head record the last two seasons.
Pick: Astros First-Five Innings Moneyline (-140)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NHL Prop Betting Cheat Sheet
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions
- UFC 300 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Premier League Matchday 33 Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Masters Odds & Picks: Head-To-Head Matchups (Round 2)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.