Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/26)
To say that the Major League Baseball heading into the weekend is exciting is an understatement. Friday kicks off with a rare afternoon game between two of the AL Central’s biggest surprises, the Kansas City Royals (16-10) and Detroit Tigers (14-11). Following that, there are five interleague series openers between teams that are .500 or better, including two series (New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves) that are between division leaders. That does not even take into consideration an intriguing series at Fenway Park between the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs, two of MLB’s oldest and most storied franchises.
Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday, April 26.
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Friday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Oakland Athletics (+215) @ Baltimore Orioles (-260) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Baltimore Orioles have a young, versatile, and deep lineup that has been a nightmare for opposing pitchers. Five hitters are currently batting over .300, while five others have OPSs of .866 or better, which ranks top 30 in the league. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle is one that fits both of those categories, and he is one of two Orioles hitters with seven or more career at-bats against Oakland Athletics righty Ross Stripling. Mountcastle is 3-for-7 with two home runs and a .571 wOBA against Stripling, and it is a scary thought for the Oakland pitching staff if he gets going, as he has driven in at least one run in just two of the last eight games.
Oakland ranked 21st in team ERA (4.15) and 25th in xFIP entering Thursday, and while its bullpen ranked eighth in ERA, we expect Baltimore to do most of its damage off Stripling, a pitcher who ranks in the 13th percentile or worse in xBA and whiff rate.
While the Under is 17-5 in Baltimore’s last 22 games, the Orioles offense is not the biggest culprit of that, as they have cashed the team total Over in 78 of their last 143 games dating back to last season. The moneyline odds are too steep to back Baltimore, so we are getting creative by wagering on its team total Over.
Bet: Orioles team total Over 4.5 (-111)
Chicago Cubs (-110) @ Boston Red Sox (-106) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
Fenway Park is widely considered one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums, but do not tell that to Kutter Crawford, as his 0.66 ERA through five starts is the lowest among all starting pitchers. Crawford has not allowed a home run in 43 2/3 innings, and has surrendered just two extra-base hits this season.
Crawford should have little trouble navigating a Chicago Cubs lineup that is without two of their most feared bats, as Seiya Suzuki is dealing with an oblique injury, and Cody Bellinger suffered two cracked ribs. Conversely, MLB’s Sarah Langs reported that Cubs rookie southpaw Shota Imanaga narrowly missed out on becoming the third pitcher since 1913 to begin a season with four consecutive starts of at least four innings pitched and no earned runs allowed. While he allowed his first career home run in his last start against the Miami Marlins, he still produced a quality start, after beginning his career with no earned runs allowed over 18 innings.
While oddsmakers likely have lowered this total significantly knowing that bettors would flock to the Under, we are still backing a pitcher’s duel between two starting pitchers that have been among the sport’s best through the first month.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) @ San Francisco Giants (-154) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
San Francisco Giants lefty Kyle Harrison has recorded 18 outs in three of his five starts, and recorded at least five strikeouts in two of those. The two starts where he did not last that deep in the game came against the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers, two teams that rank in the top nine in batting average and top 11 in wRC+ against southpaws. However, the Pittsburgh Pirates rank outside the top 11 in both of those categories, and strike out at the NL's highest rate (26.3%) against left-handed pitching.
San Francisco should also have plenty of offensive success against Pirates righty Quinn Priester, whose barrel rate, xSLG, wOBA, K%, ERA, and xERA are all worse than his rookie year, where he had plenty of struggles through 10 appearances (eight starts). Priester’s spot in the rotation would likely be the easiest to forego to make rook for top prospect Paul Skenes’ inevitable promotion to the big leagues. The Giants also have a big scheduling advantage in this game, coming off of an off day where they did not have to travel, while Pittsburgh was finishing a series yesterday afternoon against a heated division rival.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-154)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.