Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/10)
A small, seven-game Thursday slate where under half of the Major League Baseball teams were in action gives way to a loaded 15-game slate to kick off Mother’s Day Weekend. More than half (eight) of the 15 games being played today are between division rivals, so there are sure to be some intense matchups tonight and throughout the weekend. Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, May 3.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago Cubs (+110) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) | O/U 7 (-115/-105)
Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon returns to face the organization with whom he spent the first four years of his career in what is an under-the-radar starting pitching matchup. Taillon’s season got off to a late start after beginning on the IL, and he has already won three of his first four starts while pitching to a 1.13 ERA and allowing at most one earned run in each outing. Taillon is pitching much more to contact than ever before in his career, with his 6.0 K/9 rate being a sharp decline from his previous career low of 7.2.
However, he still keeps hitters off the basepaths with an impeccable 0.875 WHIP. In his last start against a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup, Taillon allowed a minuscule 0.096 xwOBA contact rate and got hitters to chase on 41.9% of his pitches, including on 58.8% of his four-seam fastballs.
While Pittsburgh Pirates righty Paul Skenes makes his long-anticipated MLB debut tomorrow, it has been fellow rookie Jared Jones who has been stealing the spotlight in the rotation so far. Jones entered his last start as one of just two starting pitchers who ranked in the 80th percentile or better in chase percentage, whiff percentage, walk rate and strikeout rate. All he did to back up that solid start was strike out 10 batters in seven scoreless innings while allowing one hit in his last appearance against the Colorado Rockies.
The Under has cashed in 21 of Chicago’s last 32 games (+8.75 units/25% ROI), and it should be the right side of the total once again when facing a Pirates offense that has scored four or fewer runs in 11 of the last 12 games.
Bet: Under 7 (-105)
Houston Astros (-134) @ Detroit Tigers (+114) | O/U 8 (-112/-108)
The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers are both scuffling at the moment, with each losing back-to-back series against AL division leaders. However, we have more confidence in Detroit in this home series opener, largely because the Astros send southpaw Framber Valdez to the mound, and the Tigers are 6-1 against left-handed starting pitchers this year.
Detroit has three players in the projected lineup (Mark Canha, Andy Ibanez and Wenceel Perez) with a .400 or better BABIP against lefties this season, and the first two have a 220 or higher wRC+. Valdez’s 7.5 K/9 rate ranks fourth among all Astros starters (minimum four starts), and his 4.48 xERA compared to his actual 3.97 ERA suggests further regression is looming.
Conversely, we have confidence in Tigers righty Casey Mize, who ranks in the top-third of the league in ground ball rate and the 86% percentile in walk rate. After being off all of last season, Mize’s 17.3% strikeout rate to this point is encouraging. His xBA and xSLG on his two primary pitches (fastball and slider) are also both better than his actual averages allowed.
Despite its recent struggles, Detroit has still cashed the moneyline in 52 of its last 99 games (+12.30 units/11% ROI), and we expect it to continue to be profitable for bettors tonight.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+114)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+112) @ Baltimore Orioles (-132) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
With the Baltimore Orioles’ dramatic 7-6 12-inning victory in the series finale against the Washington Nationals, they extended their regular-season series streak without being swept to 103, the fourth-best in league history. To put that into perspective, Baltimore has not been swept in the regular season since catcher Adley Rutschman made his MLB debut in May 2022.
However, the win was not without concern, as closer Craig Kimbrel has now blown four of 12 save opportunities this year, including squandering a two-run lead with two outs and no one on in the bottom of the ninth. What to do with Kimbrel and the back end of the bullpen has to be weighing on Orioles manager Brandon Hyde’s mind. Several relievers have already been overextended and thrust into certain situations where they are not best suited to compensate for Kimbrel’s shortcomings.
That is why we are limiting this wager to the first five innings, as southpaw Cole Irvin has not allowed a run in 20 straight innings while pitching to an 11:2 K:BB ratio in that span. The Diamondbacks are 5-9 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, and Irvin should foil a Diamondbacks lineup with impressive slash line numbers (.313/.372/.494) against southpaws.
Baltimore’s offense should hang a big number early on Brandon Pfaadt, who ranks in the bottom half of all starting pitchers in ground ball rate and xBA.
Arizona is 2-5 in Pfaadt’s seven starts and has not led after five innings in any of his last two appearances, while Baltimore has covered the first five innings run line in 49 of its last 80 games (+12.26 units/13% ROI).
Pick: Orioles First Five Innings -0.5 (+110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.