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Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/1)

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The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles are playing arguably the most meaningful series of the week, as the two teams have shown they are capable of winning 100-plus games and battling for the AL East crown all season. Baltimore drew first blood on Monday, with New York making history of the wrong kind in the process, as Stathead’s Katie Sharp revealed that this is the fifth time in Yankees franchise history (and first since 1984) that they have been shut out five times through their first 30 games.  

Will New York’s bats get going? The Yankees-Orioles tilt is one of three games that we preview in our MLB best bets for Wednesday, May 1.

    Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Kansas City Royals (+116) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-134) | O/U 8 (-115/-105) 

    Seth Lugo’s days of being buried in the New York Mets bullpen seem like an afterthought, as he has been dominant as a starter for the Kansas City Royals this year. Following his last outing of seven scoreless innings and three-hit baseball, he is now 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA and matched a career-high with nine strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers. Lugo now has three starts of six or more scoreless innings this season.

    Thomas Nestico explained that Lugo’s success is largely tied to his extensive arsenal of pitches:

    Lugo faces a Blue Jays lineup that snapped a 20-game streak of scoring five or fewer runs in a 6-5 victory in the series opener on Monday. Chris Black explained that the Blue Jays were on track to finish with their lowest slugging percentage in a single month in the last 25 years, and the team was only staying afloat because of a starting pitching staff that’s ranked ninth in ERA since April 15.

    However, that accolade has nothing to do with Chris Bassitt’s performance, as he has pitched to a 6.28 ERA over his last three starts while allowing an absurd 23.1% HR/FB rate. Thus, do not be swayed by the Blue Jays’ impressive pitching numbers, as most of that is credit to Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. Bassitt is by far Toronto’s most vulnerable pitcher at the moment, which makes Kansas City’s moneyline odds awfully enticing.

    We are getting great value on a Royals team that had profited bettors 13.10 units and a 77% ROI if they had tailed their recent 12-5 hot stretch entering Tuesday.

    Pick: Royals Moneyline (+116)

    New York Yankees (+134) @ Baltimore Orioles (-158) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110) 

    If one were to nitpick the Yankees’ 19-11 record entering Tuesday, they could start with their 8-3 record in one-run games, which is not likely sustainable over the course of the entire season. Furthermore, only one team (the Oakland Athletics) has played more such games to this point.

    Per Katie Sharp, New York entered Tuesday tied for the worst winning percentage (0-8, .000) in Major League Baseball when scoring two or fewer runs but is an MLB-best 19-3 (.864) when scoring three or more.

    Using that statistic as a backdrop, we do not like their chances against Orioles ace Corbin Burnes. The former Brewer has yet to lose a decision in five starts, and his team is 4-1 in those starts, with the only loss coming in his last outing when the team blew a 2-1 lead in the ninth inning against Oakland. Opponents have scored three-plus runs in four of Burnes’ five starts, but they have not been doing damage off of him, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of those. The only concerning thing about Burnes is that he has issued multiple walks in three of his last four starts and faces a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in walk rate. However, while these two teams began their series ranked in the top two in the AL in OPS, runs and home runs, we only expect one of these offenses to perform to that caliber today.

    Baltimore entered Tuesday covering the run line in 81 of its last 138 games (+19.90 units, 11% ROI), and we are opting for the better value with laying the 1.5 runs than backing their moneyline odds tonight.

    Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+125)

    Chicago Cubs (-118) @ New York Mets (+100) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110) 

    If you have not yet seen Chicago Cubs rookie Shota Imanaga pitch, he is worth the price of admission. Imanaga has led the Cubs to victories in all five of his starts after pitching to a minuscule ERA of 0.98 and a 0.80 WHIP. Per MLB Stats, Imanaga’s career is off to a historic start, as he became the first pitcher in nearly 80 years to begin a career 4-0 with a sub-1.00 ERA in his first five career games.

    The Mets rank eighth in slugging against left-handed pitchers this year. Still, we expect Imanaga to neutralize them in this matchup, especially since they walk at the second-lowest rate in the league against lefties and rank 20th in BABIP against southpaws. New York entered Tuesday having lost six of eight games and scoring just 10 total runs in those six losses. Until Imanaga shows us he is vulnerable, we will keep banking on low-scoring games from his opponents.

    Pick: Mets team total Under 3.5 (-122)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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