Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/29)
Last week we noted that the Philadelphia Phillies were off to their best start through 50 games since 1993, and now the Cleveland Guardians added to that by going 36-17 through 53 games, tying their franchise’s best-ever start through 53 games. To put that into perspective, the three other times that Cleveland won 36 of its first 53 games, it reached the World Series twice and won it once.
Will both teams continue their winning ways, or will upsets be brewing today?
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, May 29.
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Wednesday’s Top MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox (+150) @ Baltimore Orioles (-178) | O/U 7.5 (-106/-114)
The Baltimore Orioles bullpen has been overworked of late and will be forced into more appearances over the coming weeks, with starters John Means and Dean Kremer landing on the IL. Baltimore does have ace Corbin Burnes on the mound, but even though he has averaged a team-high 93.3 pitches per start, he has only recorded over 18 outs just once in his previous six starts. That will put a lot of pressure on Orioles relievers, who have thrown the sixth-most innings since May 10, entering Wednesday, while Boston’s bullpen has thrown the fifth-most. With that much usage, Boston’s second-ranked FIP among its relievers in that span is not sustainable, especially since they have allowed the fourth-highest BABIP (.331).
The Red Sox could get a key piece of their lineup back with Tyler O’Neill’s return from right knee soreness, and Baltimore scored 11 runs in Monday’s series opener after beginning the series with the second-most home runs in the league (44) and the top-ranked .204 ISO in its home games.
We expect the Orioles to do their part in the scoring after cashing their team total Over in five consecutive games and 30 of their last 52 entering Tuesday. In addition, opponents have scored seven runs in each of Kutter Crawford’s last two starts, so this should again be a high-scoring affair.
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-106)
Kansas City Royals (+110) @ Minnesota Twins (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Kansas City sends righty Seth Lugo to the mound, and he has made quality starts in nine of 11 outings, with the Royals going 8-3 when he toes the rubber. One of those losses was to the Minnesota Twins in Lugo’s first start of the season, but he cannot take any of the blame for the 5-1 defeat, as he threw six scoreless innings with two hits allowed. Lugo’s success in his post-Mets career was also highlighted on X, as he owns a 2.96 ERA, a 140 ERA+ and a 3.94 K/BB ratio, per Marc Weber.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Bailey Ober has made quality starts in 40% of his appearances this season. The team is 0-4 with a -24 run differential in his four starts against teams currently with a winning record while going 5-1 against teams under .500. Ober’s worst start of the season was a 53-pitch effort against the Royals, where he allowed nine hits and eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings. Ober has done well to lower his xSLG to .387 since that disastrous start. However, Kansas City is still the second-highest-scoring team in the AL behind Cleveland. Its lineup should continue to have success against Ober, against whom it has combined for a .353/.390/.669 slash line in 53 at-bats.
MLB Pick: Royals Moneyline (+110)
New York Yankees (-188) @ Los Angeles Angels (+158) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
The New York Yankees have a decision on their hands of booting someone from the rotation or going with six starters when Gerrit Cole comes back from injury. That decision has been made difficult by how well Luis Gil has pitched. Gil has pitched to a 2.11 ERA with a 2.94 FIP, 11.39 K/9 rate, 0.49 HR/9 rate and a 1.5 fWAR. Per Katie Sharp, Gil is the second pitcher in franchise history with a sub-2.15 ERA and 70-plus strikeouts in his first 10 games of a season. He is also the first pitcher in franchise history with an ERA below 0.60, 35 or more strikeouts and fewer than 15 hits allowed in any five-game span.
We also expect the Yankees offense to jump on Tyler Anderson, who ranks in the bottom-fourth of the league in xERA, strikeout rate, barrels and ground-ball rate. New York also ranks in the top-six in wRC+ and BABIP over the last two weeks against left-handed pitchers. The Yankees should have little difficulty covering the runline as it has in 16 of the previous 21 games entering Tuesday (+14.90 units/59% ROI).
MLB Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-120)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.