Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/8)
Walker Buehler’s return to the Los Angeles Dodgers is a scary proposition for the rest of the league. LA is playing well above a 100-win pace despite poor power numbers from Freddie Freeman and a rotation that was largely held together by Tyler Glasnow and rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the first month of the season. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins have been tamed for now, losing two of their last three games following a season-long 12-game winning streak.
Read on to find out which one of these two teams is involved in our MLB best bets for Wednesday, May 8.
Wednesday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (+120) @ Cleveland Guardians (-142) | O/U 8 (+100/-122)
Entering Tuesday, the Cleveland Guardians were on pace to bash 150-plus home runs and steal 150 or more bases for just the second time in franchise history. Their offense was the key reason for their surge to first place in the AL Central. However, the Guardians’ offense will likely take a significant step back as long as AL batting leader Steven Kwan is on the IL.
Cleveland faces a Detroit Tigers team that has seen nine of their last 16 games finish with seven or fewer runs scored. Their starting pitching ERA (2.52) also ranks in the top five in the Majors in that span. Comparatively, Cleveland’s starting pitching ERA is 4.33 since April 20, but that shouldn’t matter as much against a Tigers lineup that ranks 24th or worse in batting average, slugging, wOBA and wRC+ in that span.
Consider the Under a contrarian play, as Guardians righty Tanner Bibee has lost both of his starts against Detroit while pitching to a 7.27 ERA and 1.962 WHIP. We are encouraged by his 3.13 career ERA at home and the fact that he has allowed just six home runs in 83 1/3 career home innings, compared to 13 home runs in 95 innings on the road. The Under was also 33-22 in Cleveland’s last 55 home games before Tuesday (+8.90 units/15% ROI), and that is what we expect to be the correct side of this total in this afternoon matinee.
Bet: Under 8 (-122)
Miami Marlins (+220) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-270) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)
This is an early 12:10 p.m. local first pitch for this Marlins-Dodgers tilt, but we do not expect LA’s offense to be sleepy, as it averaged 6.4 runs per game over its last 14 games entering Tuesday. The Dodgers have collectively slashed .296/.382/.521 with a league-high 11.7% walk rate in that span. Their 25 home runs were two more than the next-highest total in baseball despite playing one fewer game than most teams.
Los Angeles looks to keep its offensive momentum going against Miami’s Ryan Weathers, who has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his seven starts. The most concerning thing for Marlins fans is Weathers’ control issues, as the southpaw has issued three walks in four of his previous six starts.
Miami is just 4-15 against teams over .500, while Los Angeles is 11-4 against southpaws (14-9 against right-handed pitchers). The Dodgers should get just enough of an effort from Gavin Stone, who ranks in the top quarter of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed. Los Angeles cashed the run line in 72 of its last 128 games (+16.60 units/11% ROI) entering Tuesday, while 13 of Miami’s last 14 losses were by two or more runs.
Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-132)
Boston Red Sox (+168) @ Atlanta Braves (-200) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)
Atlanta Braves southpaw Chris Sale will be eager to perform well against his former Boston Red Sox teammates, which should not be too difficult, considering Boston is 4-5 against left-handed starting pitchers but 15-12 against righties. Boston ranks 18th in batting average against southpaws, but it does so at a top-five BABIP rate when it does connect. That is where Sale’s strikeout ability would loom large. In that regard, he looks like his vintage self, ranking in the 96th percentile in chase rate and 82nd percentile or better in both strikeout and walk rate.
Conversely, Boston’s Nick Pivetta has pitched to a 0.82 ERA thus far, but do not let those numbers cloud the fact that this is his first start since coming off the IL (flexor strain). Pivetta did not look all that sharp in his last rehab start, allowing four earned runs on three hits and four walks in just three innings at Triple-A Worcester. We expect the Braves to take full advantage early of any rust that the righty may show.
Bet: Braves First Five Innings -0.5 (-152)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.