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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 20th (2021)

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Just a couple of days ago, it seemed that favorites were going to reign supreme for the rest of the regular season. As Dave Tuley reported on Twitter, favorites went 124-50 (71.3% win percentage) from August 4th to August 16th. The trend seemed to coincide with the aftermath of the trade deadline and how many teams that were sellers were non-competitive. Over the last three days, favorites are 16-13, bringing their winning percentage in August to 67.7% (170-81) and suggesting the underdogs are not quite rolling over for the rest of the season.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 135-120-6 (-0.36 units)

Kansas City Royals ML (-115)

Before the season started, it would have been unfathomable to think the Kansas City Royals would be favored over the Chicago Cubs in August at Wrigley Field. However, the Cubs stripped their team at the trade deadline and are now 1-10 in their last 11 home games and 0-5 in their previous five interleague games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Royals are coming off a surprising series win over the Houston Astros and are 6-2 in their last eight games as road favorites. Thus, we are throwing the preseason expectations out the window and riding the team with momentum. 

Chicago does come into this opener off a surprising series win of their own, taking two of three games from the Reds. Their pitching staff held the Reds to two total runs over the last two games, highlighted by Kyle Hendricks’ Major League-leading 14th win in the middle game of the series. Unfortunately, today’s starter, Zach Davies (6-9, 5.00), has not enjoyed the same success as Hendricks. He has just one win in his last nine starts and has pitched to a 6.96 ERA in his previous seven starts. His ERA and OBA are both worse at Wrigley this year, and his ERA has gone up every month since May.

Kansas City’s Brad Keller (7-12, 5.62) has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts. He has lost three straight decisions but was a hard-luck loser in his previous start after allowing just two earned runs in 7.2 innings against the Cardinals. Keller has a 3.61 ERA in his last seven starts and has lowered his ERA by more than a run in that span.

The Royals won six consecutive games less than a month ago, proving they can go win games in bunches. Kansas City has lost four straight games at Wrigley but is facing a Cubs team that is a shell of the other teams that they lost to.

Atlanta Braves Alternate Runline -3 runs (+110)

The Atlanta Braves have surged to a comfortable lead in the NL East standings thanks to a six-game winning streak and nine wins in their last ten games. The following tweet by the Elias Sports Bureau summarizes how successful Atlanta has been on the road of late.

Atlanta now hits the road to face an Orioles team mired in a 15-game losing streak and who has been outscored 138-42 in that span. The losing streak is now Baltimore’s longest losing streak of the season after they had endured another 14-game losing streak from mid-to-late May. Now they are coming dangerously close once again to their franchise-record longest losing streak of 21 games set in 1988.

There are not many ways to return significant value with Atlanta’s steep odds other than to dabble in the alternate runlines. The Orioles have not lost by less than four runs in any of their last seven games and are a mind-boggling 1-16 in the 17 games Keegan Akin (0-7, 8.13) has appeared in. Of those 16 losses, just five have come by less than four runs. As long as Atlanta is motivated to play a game against baseball’s worst team, they should cover this alternate runline.

White Sox-Rays OVER 9 runs (+100)

It is not every day that a team 28 games over .500 and riding a four-game winning streak is underdogs in their building. Oddsmakers seem down on tonight’s Rays starter, Michael Wacha, as Tampa Bay is a home underdog for just the 15th time in their 61 home games. Wacha (2-4, 5.91) has not given oddsmakers much reason to believe that he can beat the White Sox, as he has pitched to an 11.57 ERA in three August starts despite facing two of the American League’s worst two teams (Orioles, Twins) in his last two starts. Instead of hemming and hawing about who will win, the over looks like the safer play.

Wacha is opposed by Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (9-9, 3.83), whose 5.06 ERA in August is on track to be his highest since a 5.68 ERA in April. He faces a Rays offense that has scored seven or more runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Tampa Bay has six players with an OPS greater than 1.000 in August, led by AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Randy Arozarena’s team-leading 1.410. Chicago’s offense has been just as good now that Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert are healthy. The White Sox have scored at least four runs in five of their last seven games and rank fourth in the majors in home runs since July 26th.

The over is 6-0 in Tampa Bay’s last six series openers and is 5-0-1 in Giolito’s last six starts in the opening game of a series. Look for these two hot offenses to provide plenty of fireworks tonight.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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