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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, September 10th (2021)

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Much of the luster of the weekend’s two biggest series has been removed, given how poorly the teams involved have played of late. In August, it looked like the Subway Series between the Yankees and Mets and the three-game series between the Dodgers and Padres were going to be filled with can’t-miss drama. The games will still be meaningful as the Dodgers try and nail down an N.L. West title and the Yankees, Mets, and Padres battle for their playoff lives. However, they would have been more intriguing had three of the four teams played better baseball heading into the weekend.

We eschew these two marquee series openers with today’s picks. Instead, we focus on a team total for an underrated offense, a considerable moneyline underdog facing a beatable starting pitcher, and a first five innings total between two heated rivals.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 162-133-7 (+12.53 units) 

Washington Nationals Team Total OVER 3.5 runs (-140)

In Tuesday’s daily picks column, we cited the fact that we liked the over in the Nationals-Braves game because of how well Washington hitters have fared against left-handed starting pitchers this year. That day, they did not have the best success against Braves starter Max Fried but still totaled five runs as they exploited Atlanta’s bullpen. With another crack at a left-handed pitcher in Pittsburgh’s Steven Brault, we like the Nationals to succeed offensively once again.

Brault (0-3, 5.61) has been rocked for 12 earned runs over his last seven innings and has allowed 15 hits and issued four walks in that span. Walks are nothing new for Brault, as his 85 free passes issued since the start of 2019 is the sixth-highest among pitchers with at least 179 innings pitched. In addition, he has allowed an OBP of .353 against right-handed batters in that span, which is the seventh-highest.

Brault faces a Nationals lineup that entered Thursday ranked first in the majors with a .802 OPS against lefties and second with a .271 batting average. In addition, they rank in the top ten in the league in runs scored over the last 15 days, so they are in good form coming into this matchup.

The Nationals have won each of the last five meetings against the Pirates. In addition, the Pirates are 0-4 in Brault’s previous four starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  These trends suggest the Nationals are due for a big offensive night and a likely victory.

Detroit Tigers ML (+150)

In somewhat of a scheduling quirk, the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers meet for the first time this season on September 10 and will play seven games against each other in the next nine days. The Tigers caught a break in this home series opener by facing Tampa Bay’s weakest starting pitcher. Combine that with the fact that the Rays are coming off a grueling series against the Red Sox, and there is a recipe for an upset tonight.

Tampa Bay’s Michael Wacha (3-4, 5.54) has not pitched like a guy that deserves to make the team’s postseason roster. He has pitched to a 6.29 ERA over his last seven starts and has a 6.75 ERA in 12 road appearances (ten starts) this season. Detroit counters with Matthew Boyd (3-8, 3.89), who has lasted just four innings in each of his two starts since returning from the I.L. However, his home ERA is 2.64 compared to a 5.81 ERA on the road, and we expect Boyd to once again be comfortable in his home confines. Tampa Bay hits right-handed starters much better, as their batting average and OPS against lefties rank in the league’s bottom half.

The under is 3-0-1 in Boyd’s last four home starts against teams with a winning record. While the Rays have won four of their previous five games against the Tigers, they are vulnerable tonight with Wacha on the mound against a solid lefty in Boyd.

Reds-Cardinals First Five Innings UNDER 4.5 runs (-115)

The Cincinnati Reds have won four straight road games against the St. Louis Cardinals. The two teams begin a crucial three-game series that will go a long way in determining if either team can make a late push to secure the National League’s second wild card spot. Instead of stewing over the right side, there is value in the first five innings under in a matchup of two hot starting pitchers.

Cincinnati’s Tyler Mahle (11-5, 3.76) has been lights out on the road this year, going 7-2 with a 1.90 ERA in 15 road starts. The 1.90 road ERA ranks second in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. In addition, his .287 slugging percentage allowed on the road ranks fourth among qualified starters. He is opposed by St. Louis’s Jon Lester (5-6, 4.89), who has “turned back the clock” recently, allowing one earned run in four of his last five starts. However, Lester has pitched into the seventh inning just once in that span, making the first five innings total much more attractive.

The under is 4-0 in the Reds’ last four games and is 4-0 in their previous four road games against left-handed starters. In addition, the under is 6-1-2 in St. Louis’s last nine home games. So take the bullpens out of the equation and look for a low-scoring game early.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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