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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Friday, September 3rd (2021)

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Though there is a full slate of 15 Major League Baseball games to start the weekend, one stands out with by far the most significance. The Dodgers and Giants begin a three-game series with the two teams tied atop the standings in the N.L. West. With just 28 games left in the regular season, every game between them this weekend will be crucial in determining who wins the division and who will avoid the dreaded one-game playoff. This is also the last three times they will face each other before the playoffs, so it will be interesting to see how their results for the next three days affect the futures odds for the division title.

Aside from the Dodgers-Giants clash, there are potentially only two other series openers where both teams could be playoff teams (A’s-Blue Jays, Astros-Padres). As will often be the case until October 3rd, bettors will have to navigate a slew of games with unmotivated teams and determine if there is any value in the odds of their games.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Friday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 154-127-7 (+11.38 units) 

Toronto Blue Jays ML (-145)

The Oakland Athletics are one of two American League teams with a better winning percentage on the road than at home. They are coming off a road series win against the Tigers and head across the border to take on a rested Blue Jays team. Toronto is just 1-4 this season when they have the rest advantage over their opponents, but we still like the fact that they are coming off a day’s rest to be what propels them to victory tonight.

Another reason to love the Blue Jays is that their starting pitcher comes into this outing with tons of momentum, while Oakland’s does not. Alek Manoah (5-2, 3.15) is second among Blue Jays starters in WHIP, ERA, K/9, and pitches per start. He is 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in six home starts, and the team is 5-1 in those games. On the other hand, Oakland’s Sean Manaea (8-9, 3.97) has lost three straight decisions and is winless in his last five starts. He pitched to a 9.90 ERA in that span, and his ERA in August was more than double that of any other month this season.

Toronto is 8-2 in their last ten games against Oakland and is 15-5 in their previous 20 home meetings. With these trends and the more trustworthy starting pitcher on the mound, a play on the Blue Jays is a no-brainer.

Cleveland Indians Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (+100)

COVID-19 has hit the Boston Red Sox at a difficult time, as they try to secure one of the A.L.’s two wild card spots. Among Boston’s players on the COVID-19 IL are Xander Bogaerts, Christian Arroyo, Matt Barnes, Kike Hernandez, and Hirokazu Sawamura. While they still deserve to be home favorites over Cleveland in tonight’s series opener, the better play with a limited roster is to take the under on the Indians’ team total.

In his last nine starts, Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.71) has just one win. However, he has been lights out in three starts at Fenway Park in that span, allowing a combined three earned runs to the Rays, Yankees, and Rangers. At home, Eovaldi has been an innings eater, going at least seven innings in each of his last five starts. Thus, this mitigates some of the depth issues at the back end of Boston’s rotation.

Eovaldi has allowed just three home runs in 93 innings at home. He surrendered two runs in 5.2 innings in his last start on the road at Cleveland but will have much more success in the friendly confines of Fenway Park. Boston has won four of their previous five meetings against Cleveland, and Eovaldi will do all he can to ensure another Red Sox victory while keeping the Indians off the scoreboard.

Kansas City Royals First Five Innings ML (+135)

You may not have realized it given their 14-15 record, but the Kansas City Royals were the second-most profitable team to bet on in August, as Bets Stats explained.

The Royals have been highly profitable to wager on against tonight’s opponent, the division-leading White Sox. The Royals have split their 16 head-to-head meetings with Chicago and have been significant underdogs in most of those contests. We do not need them to be a full-game winner tonight, but we need them to get to White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel (8-7, 5.00) early. 

Keuchel has been hit hard in his last seven starts, pitching to a 7.34 ERA and winning just once in that span. He has felt the pressure to pitch well to earn a spot on the playoff roster and has admitted he has been the worst pitcher in the rotation. He was tagged for four runs in six innings in his lone road start at Kansas City and did not miss many bats with just three strikeouts. Conversely, Royals starter Kris Bubic (4-6, 5.18) has allowed just five earned runs in 17.2 combined innings over three starts against the White Sox this year.

Chicago has the edge in the back end of the bullpen and may get to Royals relievers late, but we take that out of the equation and expect Bubic to outduel Keuchel.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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