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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Monday, September 6th (2021)

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You know that the Major League Baseball season is getting into the “dog days” of September when more and more names of starting pitchers and hitters are becoming unrecognizable. With expanded rosters in full force and teams whose playoff aspirations are gone, we are seeing more clubs utilize players to fill in for injured starters and see what they have in the farm system for future use.

Just yesterday alone, two starting pitchers (Ryan Feltner and Janson Junk) made their Major League debuts for the Rockies and Angels and went a combined 0-2. Therefore, when making wagers on baseball games nowadays, be sure to collect as much information as possible about starting pitchers and lineups, considering that the number of household names is decreasing, especially among non-contenders.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Monday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 156-128-7 (+12.42 units) 

New York Mets Team Total OVER 4.5 runs (-130)

The New York Mets have averaged 8.25 runs per game in their current series with the Washington Nationals, and those numbers include two games worth of seven-inning doubleheaders. In the last ten games against the Nationals, all since the trade deadline, the Mets have scored at least four runs eight times and own an 8-2 record in those games. New York should be in for another offensive explosion when facing Patrick Corbin today.

Corbin (7-14, 6.26) has allowed a career .315 OBA and .635 slugging percentage to Mets hitters in 181 combined at-bats. He allowed six earned runs in ten combined innings against the Mets this year, and they have slugged four home runs against him in the process. Corbin has won just one of his last nine starts and has pitched to a 7.78 ERA in his previous seven.

The over is 6-0 in Corbin’s last six starts against teams from the NL East and has cashed in each of his last four home starts. The Mets have inflated moneyline odds to win this series finale but are a much better value by wagering on their team total.

Rays-Red Sox OVER 8.5 runs (-120)

The Tampa Bay Rays broke out their bats in a big way in their latest series against the Minnesota Twins. They slugged six home runs in the first four innings of Saturday’s win over the Minnesota Twins. The six home runs that early in the game tied their single-game franchise record. Over the three games, they pounded out 30 hits and 21 runs en route to a series win. Though they face Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale (3-0, 2.53) today, there is reason to believe the Rays will do their part in the scoring.

Sale held the Rays to just two runs over six innings in a no-decision last Wednesday. However, his three strikeouts were by far his lowest of any of his four starts this season, which suggests Tampa Bay’s hitters saw the ball well. Now that they are facing Sale for the second time in less than a week, they could have the advantage in this matchup as Sale’s arsenal of pitches is fresh in their minds.

The over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings at Fenway Park between these teams. With Boston’s ability to score runs off Tampa Bay starter Ryan Yarbrough (8-4, 4.50) not really in doubt, we like for another high-scoring game between these teams in this series opener.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs (+150)

There was much talk entering September that the Philadelphia Phillies had a good chance to catch the Atlanta Braves in the NL East because their schedule was very easy going forward. Unfortunately, the Phillies have not made that schedule look easy just yet, as they followed up a six-game winning streak with a disappointing series loss to the Marlins. Now the Phillies step up in class with a three-game road series against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, with a matchup against one of their two aces to boot.

Brandon Woodruff (9-7, 2.35) has been sensational in four of his last starts and has rebounded nicely from a poor outing three starts ago. In a road start against the Cardinals on August 19, Woodruff was tagged for six runs on eight hits over five innings. Woodruff has allowed just two earned runs over 21 combined innings in his other four starts in that five-game span. He faces a Phillies lineup that was held to just nine runs and 19 hits in their last three-game series against the Marlins. Philadelphia has the look of a team that is sorely missing the presence of Rhys Hoskins in the lineup, as he is out for the remainder of the season with an abdominal tear.

Phillies starter Zack Wheeler (11-9, 3.01) has fallen hard out of the NL Cy Young Award race, as he has allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last six starts. In addition, he has pitched to a 6.43 ERA in his last four road starts, and the Brewers are a good bet to add to his road misery.

Philadelphia is 4-0 in their last four meetings with Milwaukee, including a 4-1 record in their previous five games at American Family Field. These trends keep the Brewers’ runline odds manageable, but Philadelphia’s success in Milwaukee ends today.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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