Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, September 5 (2021)

Welcome back for another Sunday, friends. This is the last Sunday before we’ll also have a full slate of NFL games fighting for our attention (and funds), so let’s make the most of it. The Boston Red Sox continue to deal with an extended COVID outbreak, but they are still hanging on in the American League Wild Card race. The Yankees finally cooled off but are also still more than four games up on the A’s, Mariners, and Blue Jays and a half of a game up on the Red Sox. In the National League, the Dodgers have pulled to a tie with the Giants in the West, while the Braves are two games up on the Phillies and three and a half games up on the Mets in the East. Those races and the National League Wild Card look like they could come down to the wire.

Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, September 5. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.

View the best player prop bets for today's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Mets ML (-149)

		-1.5 +110	o 9.0 EVEN	-149
JOIN NOW		+1.5 -133	o 9.0 EVEN	+125

The Mets are fighting to stay alive and relevant in the races for the National League East crown or a National League Wild Card spot. On Sunday, they are sending Taijuan Walker to the mound against Josiah Gray for the Nationals. After hitting a bit of a rough patch in July, Walker has turned things around. He hasn’t won a start since early July but has three quality starts in his last four trips to the mound. With a lackluster Washington lineup on the docket for Sunday, I’m expecting another strong performance from Walker. Gay is one of the most exciting young pitching prospects in baseball, but he allowed six earned runs in his last start against the Phillies and has walked six batters in his last 10 innings. The Mets have a much better lineup than the Nationals and have something to play for, and I’m expecting Walker to limit the damage against a Washington lineup that is essentially Juan Soto and Josh Bell and a bunch of filler. BetMGM has the best odds for this moneyline, at -149.

Chicago Cubs ML (-145)

		+1.5 -155	o 9.0 -105	+125
JOIN NOW		-1.5 +135	o 9.0 -105	-145

It feels strange to pick the Chicago Cubs to win a game (and be confident in doing so) in September, but here we are. Facing the Pirates will do that. The Pirates own a .290 team wOBA, good for the worst mark in baseball. Their team ERA? That’s 5.08, and only the Orioles and Diamondback have worse marks. The Cubs were major sellers at the MLB trade deadline, but their offense has been surging thanks to names like Frank Schwindel, Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom, and Rafael Ortega. They are, somehow, a fun team playing with a lot of energy right now. The Pirates are 48-88 and, more importantly, they look like a 48-88 team in all facets. Sunday’s pitching matchup features Wil Crowe starting for the Pirates against Zach Davies for the Cubs. It’s not often that I back Davies for a bet, but I’m taking the veteran right-hander and the Cubs against the Pirates today. DraftKings has this one at -145.

Seattle Mariners -1.5 Runs (+122)

		-1.5 +122	o 9.0 -106	-142
JOIN NOW		+1.5 -146	o 9.0 -106	+120

We talked above about how bad the Pirates are this season. The Diamondbacks, at 45-92, are even worse. Some bettors may be afraid of this game because it features Tyler Gilbert starting for Arizona, and he threw a no-hitter against the Padres back in August. At the time, I talked about that performance on FantasyPros’ Leading Off podcast and called it “one of the most unimpressive no-hitters I’ve seen.” And that isn’t meant as a slight against Gilbert; it’s just that he only struck out five batters and was essentially just throwing the ball over the plate and hoping for the best. Since that no-hitter, here are Gilbert’s numbers: 15 IP, 9 ER, 20 H, 5 BB, 10 Ks.

The Mariners are starting Chris Flexen, who has been quietly having a very solid season. Through 25 starts and 145 2/3 innings, Flexen has a 3.52 ERA. I’m willing to give the 1.5 runs to move this line to +122 over at FanDuel and am expecting an underrated Seattle lineup to put up some runs against Gilbert.

That's it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.

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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.