Top 3 MLB Mid-Season Bets: Odds & Picks (2022)
At the midway point of the 2005 Season, the Washington Nationals paced the NL East with a record of 52-36. By projecting this winning percentage onto their 162-game slate, one would expect the Nats to finish 96-66 (good for 2nd in the National League that year).
The Nationals finished the 2005 season last in the NL East, missing the playoffs entirely with a record of 81-81.
The Nationals were never very good that year; they just had a good record at the midway point. These Nationals are an example of the utility of run-differential at predicting win totals and identifying over/underachievers throughout the MLB Regular Season.
MLB Mid-Season Best Bets
Bill James, famous for his work in applying mathematics to baseball analysis, identified a simple expression for predicting MLB win totals based solely on a team’s run-differential. This expression, known as Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem, estimates the percentage of games won by the equation ?'?2/(?'?2 + 1) and is remarkably accurate at estimating MLB win totals year-to-year.
At 52-36, the Nationals had a run-differential of 0.989, meaning that the Nats were being outscored by their opponents and were very fortunate to have won so many games (Bill James’ equation estimates that the Nationals had won 8.5 more games than expected). And for the rest of the season, the Nationals had an ?'? of 0.904, estimating that they should have won 33 more games (they regressed, winning 29 of their last 74).
It would have been extremely foolish to bet on the Nationals to win anything at that point in the season. They were clearly overachieving and had postseason expectations based solely on their status as frontrunners in the NL East.
At this point in the 2022 MLB Regular Season, there is an opportunity to identify teams similar to the 2005 Nationals, as there is value in betting on those whose win totals have deviated from the expectation at the midway point.
Twins to win the AL Central (+100)
The Minnesota Twins currently have a 4.5-game lead in the NL Central, and the data suggests that the margin should be wider. Both the Chicago White Sox (+165) and the Cleveland Guardians (+425) have overachieved thus far, and if/when regression hits, it is likely that the Twins will extend their lead in the division.
There is value on Minnesota to win the AL Central, but it likely won’t be there much longer (the morning of July 5th, we could bet the Twins at +120). Bet the Twins before the line moves further.
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Runs Scored | Runs Against | R-Value | Expected Wins | Difference |
|
MIN
|
47
|
37
|
—
|
378
|
325
|
1.163
|
47.796
|
0.796
|
|
CLE
|
40
|
39
|
4.5
|
339
|
349
|
0.971
|
38.473
|
-1.527
|
|
CWS
|
38
|
41
|
6.5
|
333
|
378
|
0.881
|
34.918
|
-3.082
|
|
DET
|
33
|
47
|
12.0
|
251
|
340
|
0.738
|
29.200
|
-3.800
|
|
KCR
|
29
|
50
|
15.5
|
309
|
411
|
0.752
|
29.388
|
0.388
|
Bettors may have some value on Cleveland, but they have recently played some really poor ball. If they continue to spiral and Minnesota cannot extend their division margin, there may be a better number on Cleveland in the short future.
Cardinals to win the NL Central (+200)
The St. Louis Cardinals are three games back in the division yet own the highest expected win total of all the teams. They have scored more runs and allowed fewer than any other team and have so far split the season series evenly with Milwaukee.
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Runs Scored | Runs Against | R-Value | Expected Wins | Difference |
|
MIL
|
47
|
36
|
—
|
382
|
347
|
1.101
|
45.152
|
-1.848
|
|
STL
|
44
|
39
|
3.0
|
387
|
331
|
1.169
|
47.393
|
3.393
|
|
PIT
|
33
|
47
|
12.5
|
296
|
409
|
0.724
|
28.480
|
-4.520
|
|
CHC
|
33
|
48
|
13.0
|
357
|
420
|
0.850
|
34.506
|
1.506
|
|
CIN
|
28
|
52
|
17.5
|
340
|
440
|
0.773
|
30.720
|
2.720
|
Simply put, there is too much value to pass on the Cardinals at +200. This line implies that St. Louis only has a one-in-three chance to win the division, but the data suggests it is much closer to a coin-flip.
Phillies to win the NL East (+1800)
The New York Mets have been excellent and will likely be even better in the latter half of the year. There is no fault in betting the Mets (-145) to win the NL East, though the Philadelphia Phillies currently present the greatest value.
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Runs Scored | Runs Against | R-Value | Expected Wins | Difference |
| NYM | 50 | 31 | — | 384 | 325 | 1.181 | 46.656 | -3.344 |
| ATL | 48 | 34 | 2.5 | 391 | 333 | 1.174 | 46.986 | -1.014 |
| PHI | 43 | 38 | 7 | 396 | 340 | 1.165 | 46.089 | 3.089 |
|
MIA
|
39
|
40
|
10.0
|
346
|
331
|
1.045
|
41.080
|
2.080
|
|
WSH
|
29
|
54
|
22.0
|
327
|
456
|
0.717
|
29.216
|
0.216
|
The Phillies are well within striking distance of making a push in the NL East, and plenty of games are left to be played. The run-differential implies that this division should have three teams within one game of one another, and it is expected that this division will be competitive to the end.
As highlighted in this article’s exposition, crazier things have happened. The Phillies are the long-shot division pick to make.
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