Navigate

Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/5)

by |

This is one of the rare Fridays during the Major League Baseball season where not all 30 teams are in action, as the Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals had off days built in just in case yesterday’s home openers were postponed. And while we still have one winless team left in the league (the Miami Marlins), no team is undefeated anymore after the Detroit Tigers blew a ninth inning lead in the second leg of yesterday’s doubleheader against the New York Mets.

Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday.

    Friday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Chicago White Sox (+146) vs. Kansas City Royals (-174) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118) 

    The Kansas City Royals entered yesterday with the two hitters that lead the league in barrel rates, Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. Garcia’s power surge has been surprising and much welcomed by the Royals organization, as he already has three home runs after entering the season with four home runs in his previous 132 games.

    Kansas City trots out Brady Singer for his second start, and the righty is looking to build upon his seven scoreless innings in his first start, where he allowed three hits and struck out 10 batters. Singer was one of just four pitchers around the league entering April who threw seven-plus innings in their first start, and he had a career-best 30.2% SwK (16 whiffs) on his slider, a pitch he threw 12% more than last year, per Rotoballer’s Corbin Young. The White Sox are also likely to be without Eloy Jimenez again as he missed his fourth straight game yesterday with an adductor injury. That leaves Chicago’s lineup with little punch outside of Luis Robert Jr., and Jimenez’s loss will be felt even more in this matchup, as he is 10-for-22 with a .933 OPS in his career against Singer.

    Pick: Royals -1.5 (+118)

    Oakland Athletics (+194) vs. Detroit Tigers (-235) | O/U 7.5 (+102/-124) 

    We were not ready to hail the Detroit Tigers for their four-game winning streak to start this season (which turned into a 5-0 record after winning the first game of yesterday’s doubleheader), as every single team in the league had at least a four-game winning streak at some point last season. And while Detroit entered yesterday with three players (Mark Canha, Kerry Carpenter, and Carson Kelly) with an OPS of 1.000 or better, we expect its offense to be somewhat sluggish after playing 20 innings of baseball yesterday.

    We would normally expect more offense from Oakland when facing a a Tigers team that used many relievers out of the bullpen yesterday, but the pen will likely not be needed much with southpaw Tarik Skubal on the mound. Skubal threw six scoreless innings (three hits allowed, six strikeouts) in his first start, and generated a 40.8% miss rate and 39.5% chase rate. He picked up right where he left off last year, as he finished with seven-plus strikeouts in eight straight starts, and posted a 2.30 xERA and 32.9% strikeout rate.

    With Skubal likely dealing for a second consecutive start, we just need an average outing from JP Sears, who ranked in the seventh percentile in average barrel rate allowed last season.

    The Under has cashed in 55.7% of Detroit’s games (64-51-4) against AL opponents since the start of last season, and we expect it to be the right side of the total this afternoon.

    Pick: Under 7.5 (-124)

    Seattle Mariners (+100) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-118) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115) 

    The Milwaukee Brewers send ace Freddy Peralta to the mound, and we are going to look to back the Under early and often when he takes the mound, even if he is facing an AL West contender in the Seattle Mariners.

    Last year, Peralta totaled career-highs in starts (30) and innings pitched (165 2/3) and he finished with a strikeout rate over 30% (30.9%) for the fourth time in six seasons. His 33.6% whiff rate last season was the fifth-highest among all pitchers with a minimum of 750 swings (and his 11.6 K/9 were also the best in franchise history). Among all starting pitchers with a minimum of 50 starts since 2020, his K/9 rate ranks third, and he is in the top 11 in xwOBA, xFIP and WHIP. Peralta’s only hit allowed in six innings in his first start against the New York Mets was a solo home run, and he had an incredible 8:1 K:BB ratio.

    We also expect the Brewers lineup to struggle against Logan Gilbert, as the righty is 22-5 in his career on the road, and has allowed just 29 home runs in 258 1/3 road innings compared to 36 home runs allowed in 244 1/3 innings at home. Gilbert also has been a historically strong starter in the first half compared to the second half, where his ERA is 3.26 compared to 4.35, including a 2.37 ERA in 10 career March/April starts.

    Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

    Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

    BettingPros App