Amid the new Major League Baseball series starting this week, an interesting interleague series between two Central Division favorites, the Tigers and Brewers, begins. Elsewhere, the Royals-Yankees series has an interesting small market vs. big market feel, and the Cubs and Padres meet in a battle of 10+ win teams.
We look to continue our profitable run from last week, when we ended on another successful 2-1 day on Friday.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, April 14.
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Monday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Francisco Giants (-102) at Philadelphia Phillies (-118) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-102)
Phillies righty Taijuan Walker has yet to allow a run through 10.2 scoreless innings. Neither of his two starts has seen more than seven runs combined. But this is where we expect his torrid beginning to the season to unwind, given his history of prior seasons.
Walker pitched just 83.2 innings last year, but finished with a 7.10 ERA and career lows in WHIP (1.721) and K/9 (6.2).
The righty typically is a much better pitcher in the first half of the season than the second half, sporting a .600 career winning percentage and 3.75 ERA in the first half compared to a .434 winning percentage and 4.95 ERA in the second half.
But how he performed in spring training leaves much to be desired, pitching to a 7.41 ERA and a 4.2 K/9 rate in 17 innings.
San Francisco has scored five or more runs in nine of their 15 games thus far. The Phillies should also have success against Landen Roupp, who is due for regression from a 14.8% hard-hit rate allowed to start the season.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-118)
Boston Red Sox (+100) at Tampa Bay Rays (-120) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-102)
There has been a noticeable difference in how the ball travels at George M. Steinbrenner Field at night as opposed to during the day, where players have commented on a jet stream impacting fly balls.
Boston’s offense underperformed relative to its second-ranked batting average on balls in play (BABIP) entering Sunday, and ranked just 18th in wRC+. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck is one of the team’s most reliable starting pitchers amid the youth movement at the back end of its rotation. He has much better career numbers on the road in terms of winning percentage (.542 vs. .367) and ERA (3.24 vs. 3.91) than at home.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-102)
Kansas City Royals (+114) at New York Yankees (-135) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-102)
As long as Carlos Carrasco remains in the starting rotation for the Yankees amid their growing injury concerns, I will find opportunities to fade them on the Moneyline.
Carrasco looks washed up at this point in his career, ranking in the 13th percentile or worse in expected batting average (xBA) and expected ERA (xERA), and the seventh percentile or worse in whiff percentage and barrels.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s Seth Lugo finished second in the Cy Young voting last year. He pitched to a 2.57 ERA and a 0.857 WHIP against the Yankees in two starts last year. Lugo is 5-1 in his last six decisions against New York. These odds are too good to pass up in a game with such a big pitching discrepancy.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+114)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
