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Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/29)

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The Major League Baseball season officially turned one month old on Sunday, and if the playoff picture entering yesterday was any indication of how the season will end, we are in for a lot of parity compared to last year.

Both World Series teams from last year, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks were on the outside of the playoff picture, and so were five of the six American League playoff teams from last year, with the Baltimore Orioles on track to be the only team to reach the postseason for two straight years. On the National League side, the Miami Marlins are on track to join the Diamondbacks as the only playoff teams from last year not to make it this year.

How different will the MLB playoff picture look after the second month of the season is completed?

Read on for our MLB best bets for Monday.

    Monday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    St. Louis Cardinals (-116) vs. Detroit Tigers (-102) | O/U 8 (-112/-108) 

    The St. Louis Cardinals have won two straight series and three of their last four, and look to keep that momentum going against a Detroit Tigers team that has the worst run differential (+3) of any team at least four games over .500.

    The trends suggest Detroit is the right side in this matchup, as it is 4-0 against left-handed starting pitchers, while St. Louis is just 4-9 against teams with a winning record. However, while Cardinals southpaw Steven Matz has allowed 16 runs (13 earned) over his previous three outings, we still expect him to get the best of a Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging against lefties this season.

    Meanwhile, the Tigers have started slow in Kenta Maeda’s appearances this season, leading after the first five innings just once despite facing three of the league’s worst offenses in that span (White Sox, A’s, Twins). Maeda’s ERA (5.96) and strikeout rates (17.0%) are on pace to be career worsts, and his xSLG has increased for five consecutive seasons, with him currently allowing a worrisome .464 xsLG thus far.

    Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-116)

    Minnesota Twins (-162) vs. Chicago White Sox (+136) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110) 

    This is one of the most fishy totals of any of the 12 games on today’s slate, as Minnesota’s and Chicago’s offenses come in red-hot after finishing off sweeps this weekend.

    The Twins have won a season-high seven consecutive games to move one game over .500, and they have averaged 8.1 runs per game with at least 10 hits in every game in that streak. When Minnesota swept Chicago at home last week, three of the four games had at least nine runs scored, including the game with this exact pitching matchup between Garrett Crochet and Joe Ryan. While Ryan was tagged for a pair of solo home runs, he also ended the game with a solid 35% CSW%, and generated 10 whiffs on 29 swings on his electric fastball. We also expect Crochet to rebound after allowing five runs on seven hits in four innings in that start, as he had ranked fourth among all starting pitchers in K-BB% just 10 days ago.

    The Over has cashed in five of Minnesota’s last six games, but with temperatures dropping to the high 40s at night in Chicago, we expect this game to be much more of a pitcher’s duel.

    Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

    Cincinnati Reds (-104) vs. San Diego Padres (-112) | O/U 8 (-112/-108) 

    The Cincinnati Reds have won just two of their last seven series, while the San Diego Padres are 5-2 against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The biggest reason for these near pick’em odds is that the Reds are sending southpaw Nick Lodolo to the mound, but San Diego has had success against lefties in large part because it ranks eighth in ISO (.161) and is tied for fifth in home runs (nine) against southpaws. The Padres have four players in their lineup with a wOBA of .349 or better against lefties this season, and we expect some regression from Lodolo, whose xERA (3.38) is much worse than his actual ERA (2.12).

    The Padres counter with Matt Waldron, who has been excellent at limiting hard contact in his young career. Waldron ranks in the 82nd percentile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity allowed, and San Diego is 46-40 as home favorites since the start of last season, which makes its low moneyline odds very appealing.

    Pick: Padres Moneyline (-112)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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