If you were a runline bettor who took every team’s +1.5 runs yesterday, you likely had a profitable day, as nine of Sunday’s 16 games were decided by one run.
The biggest surprise of the season so far is the 8-1 San Francisco Giants, who are the second team this season to have a seven-game winning streak. What is in store for a new week of Major League Baseball?
Read on for our top MLB best bets for Monday, April 7th.
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Monday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Yankees (-148) @ Detroit Tigers (+126) | O/U 8.0 (-106/-114)
The Yankees are 1-1 in Carlos Rodon’s first two starts. While he allowed just three hits in his last start (a 4-3 loss to Arizona), his control issues were his undoing, walking four batters.
The Tigers are riding high after a 4-3 walk-off win on Sunday and have the travel advantage, having played at home over the weekend. I also have more confidence in Casey Mize than Rodon in this start, especially after Mize allowed just one hit over 5.2 innings in his first outing.
Mize had three pitches (four-seam fastball, slider, and splitter) that induced a whiff rate of 40% or better, and he did not allow a single barrel.
The Yankees continue to get a majority of their offense via the home run, but in a big park like Comerica Park on a cold day, New York’s offensive ceiling is much lower.
Casey Mize worked through 5.2 scoreless IP and struck out 6 in his 2025 debut!
Mize's velocity improvements from the Spring didn't hold, but his improved pitch shapes sure did! He generated a bunch of whiffs as his splitter recorded an ungodly 71.4 Whiff% pic.twitter.com/8FJml8M8Zo
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 2, 2025
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+126)
St. Louis Cardinals (-124) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+106) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have scored just 32 runs this season, more than just two other National League teams. But with the rate at which they are running on the basepaths, more offense should follow.
The Pirates have stolen an MLB-high 20 bases (out of 23 attempts), which is five more than the next best team. They should get on base plenty and run wild against Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore, who ranks in the bottom fourth of the league in expected batting average (xBA), and does not miss many bats, ranking in the second percentile in whiff percentage.
St. Louis is at a big disadvantage getting into Pittsburgh late after a doubleheader on Sunday, which concluded in the Sunday Night Baseball game. After being swept by the Red Sox (with one game going to extra innings), its bullpen is running on fumes as well.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+106)
Cincinnati Reds (+124) @ San Francisco Giants (-148) | O/U 7.0 (-104/-118)
It’s ace against ace in this series opener as Hunter Greene opposes Logan Webb. Greene is a flamethrower who became the fastest pitcher in Reds history to reach 500 career strikeouts. He also averaged 100 miles per hour (MPH) on his fastball in his last start, which was a big reason he received a proStuff+grade of 132 against the Rangers.
Meanwhile, Logan Webb has started using a cutter more as part of a five-pitch arsenal, and it paid huge dividends in his last outing with one earned run and a 6:0 K:BB ratio over seven innings.
I am taking the bullpens out of the equation and expecting these two National League Cy Young darkhorse candidates to match zeros early.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-108)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
