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Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/8)

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With all the talk of the solar eclipse as the backdrop, 13 games comprise a more loaded than usual Monday slate in Major League Baseball. One of the most surprisingly anticipated series openers is between the 8-2 Pittsburgh Pirates, winners of all three series thus far, and the 6-3 Detroit Tigers. But what other matchups do we have our eyes on for our trio of best bets?

Read on for our MLB best bets for Monday.

    Monday's Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Miami Marlins (+136) vs. New York Yankees (-162) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-118) 

    The Miami Marlins started the season with nine consecutive losses, tying the most to begin a season since the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves did so in 2016. Miami jumped on the St. Louis Cardinals for six runs in the first inning en route to a 10-3 blowout victory. It was the first time they scored six-plus runs in the first inning since June 2015. While the Marlins have been slow starters this season with first-inning runs in three of their 10 games, Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes is likely to oblige with allowing early runs, as all of his seven earned runs allowed this season have come within the first two innings.

    We are unwilling to back the Marlins for the full game given how well New York’s bullpen has pitched to this point, ranking in the top 10 in the majors in bullpen ERA. But while we are banking on Cortes being once again shaky to start, we expect Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo to be sharp early, as his xERA is 3.55, and he has allowed just four barrels to this point.

    Pick: Marlins First Five Innings Moneyline (+124)

    New York Mets (+180) vs. Atlanta Braves (-218) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115) 

    Right-hander Julio Teheran will enter familiar territory, but this time as a member of the New York Mets, when the team opens a road series against the Atlanta Braves. Teheran went 77-73 in nine seasons to begin his career with Atlanta and proved to be a Mets killer in that time, winning 10 starts against them in that span. However, Teheran is well past his prime, and there is a reason he was not on an Opening Day roster. He will likely be on a strict pitch count of 70-75 pitches as he has only thrown four innings in the Grapefruit League since March 23, which means the Braves will see plenty of a Mets bullpen that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) with a .307 mark.

    Atlanta will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play against Teheran, who has recorded 6.3 K/9 or fewer in each of his last three healthy seasons. Considering the Braves lead the majors in BABIP (.370) and slugging (.531), they should build plenty of cushion to cover the run line for the third time in their fourth division game this season.

    Pick: Braves -1.5 (-115)

    Chicago Cubs (+118) vs. San Diego Padres (-138) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105) 

    Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad is coming off a quality start against the Colorado Rockies where he allowed just four hits and struck out five in six scoreless innings. Assad threw his fastball 50% of the time last season but used it just 27% of the time in his first start, instead deferring to a sinker that generated zero whiffs on 25 pitches. The fact Assad turned in such a spectacular start given that he allowed a .429 slugging on his sinker speaks to how effective his fastball and secondary pitches were. We expect that to be the reason for success against a San Diego Padres lineup that ranks outside the top 10 in wRC+ and ISO.

    Padres righty Yu Darvish is on pace for his worst walk rate since 2018 through three starts. While he has pitched to a 1.71 ERA and 0.722 WHIP (his best against any opponent in the majors) through four career starts, we expect the Cubs to feed off the momentum of scoring 18 runs while taking two of three games from the Los Angeles Dodgers this weekend.

    Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+118)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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