Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/27)
Twenty-two Major League Baseball teams are in action on this Memorial Day Monday, and the holiday brings with it eight games that have first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET or earlier.
While all three division races in the American League have three or fewer games separating first and second place, the National League has just one race that close, with the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers comfortably atop the NL East and West, respectively. Which races will tighten up after today?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, May 27.
Monday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox (+128) at Baltimore Orioles (-152) | O/U 8.5 (-124/+102)
The Baltimore Orioles had been sputtering with four losses in five games entering the weekend but got right with a four-game road sweep of the Chicago White Sox. The Orioles averaged nearly six runs per game in the series, and now head home to Camden Yards, where they have bashed the second-most home runs in the league (44) and rank first with a .204 ISO. Baltimore should tee off on the soft-tossing Cooper Criswell, who ranks in the second percentile in fastball velocity, and who has allowed a .333 batting average and .576 slugging percentage on his sweeper, a pitch he throws one of the most often (28.7% of the time).
Baltimore’s Cole Irvin averages 84.3 pitches per start (second-fewest among all Orioles starting pitchers), which is problematic considering its relievers rank in the top seven of the league in innings pitched over the last two and a half weeks. Boston has won four consecutive road games, averaging 7.3 runs per game in that span, and it ranks first in the majors in BABIP against southpaws (.350).
The Over has cashed in 59.5% of Baltimore’s games as a favorite this season, and this is a contrarian play considering the Over is 6-18-2 in games following a Red Sox win.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Total Runs (-124)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-154) at New York Mets (+130) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
It is a rare occurrence when backing the Dodgers’ moneyline odds does not break the bank, but they are 15-8 when favorites between -115 and -155 odds. We are more than happy to back them against a Mets team amid one of its worst stretches of the season, winning just four of their last 16 games.
New York ranks 24th in batting average and on-base percentage during its poor 16-game stretch, and the only positive is that it ranks tied for seventh with 18 home runs in that span. However, Dodgers righty Gavin Stone ranks in the 62nd percentile in ground ball rate, and is elite at pitching to soft contact, ranking in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Meanwhile, Tylor Megill is not fully stretched out after making just two starts this season (nine innings pitched total), and it is not a good thing for Mets backers that Los Angeles should be facing several New York relievers, especially with its late-innings issues thanks to Edwin Diaz’s struggles.
MLB Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-154)
Philadelphia Phillies (-116) at San Francisco Giants (-102) | O/U 7.5 (-128/+104)
Giants lefty Blake Snell returned from over a month-long absence last Wednesday and looked shaky with four walks allowed and four earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. However, the offense bailed him out, scoring nine consecutive runs after trailing 5-0, the first of four straight Giants late-inning comebacks last week.
Philadelphia is 13-9 against left-handed starting pitchers, but that is a far cry from its 25-7 record against righties. The Phillies had won or split 15 consecutive series (the franchise’s longest since 1983-84), but that momentum was halted with two losses in three games at Coors Field over the weekend. We expect the West Coast struggles to continue, as the Giants have won eight of 10, and done well protecting their home field, with a 15-10 home record.
Phillies righty Taijuan Walker will not remain unbeaten (he is 3-0 through five starts) for long if he continues to pitch to an ERA north of 5.00. He has benefitted from an average of eight runs of support in the team’s four wins when he has toed the rubber. Still, the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park will suppress a lot of Philadelphia’s power numbers, and San Francisco’s bullpen which ranks second in xFIP should nail down the final innings.
San Francisco thrives in the home underdog role, winning 61.1% of its games (22-14) in that split since the beginning of last season, and we are taking advantage of its discounted moneyline odds with Philadelphia’s least reliable starting pitcher on the mound.
MLB Pick: Giants Moneyline (-102)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.