Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/6)
Another week means another opportunity for MLB picks! Monday starts the first full week of the Major League Baseball calendar in May, and the action has been intense to this point. Three of the six MLB division races are separated by one or fewer games, and six teams are on pace to surpass the 100-win total. What is in store with this loaded 10-game MLB slate to start the week?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday.
Monday’s Best MLB Bets
Let’s dive into a few of our top MLB picks for Monday’s slate of action.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-102) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-116) | O/U 7.5 (-112/-108)
The Detroit Tigers are coming off getting swept on the road by the New York Yankees, and arrived in Cleveland later than they wanted to for this series opener as they had to wait through a rain delay before their series finale on Sunday was shortened after eight innings. However, oddsmakers are giving Detroit more than a puncher’s chance with these moneyline odds that are close to a pick’em, as the Guardians have won just two of their last four series against teams currently over .500.
Cleveland’s offense took a massive hit with AL batting leader Steven Kwan landing on the IL, as Kwan was batting .353 with a league-leading 47 hits and 28 runs scored. Tigers righty Jack Flaherty may not have yet earned a victory in any of his six starts, but that is not in any way a result of poor walk and strikeout splits, as Flaherty is on pace for a career-best strikeout rate (34.0%, 94th percentile) and walk rate (3.4%).
Detroit won nine of its 13 meetings with Cleveland last year, and we expect the inter-division dominance to continue at least for one night tonight.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-102)
Milwaukee Brewers (+126) vs. Kansas City Royals (-148) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)
At first glance, this O/U of 8.5 runs seems awfully high considering one of the sport’s most promising young pitchers, Kansas City Royals southpaw Cole Ragans, is on the mound. Ragans ranks sixth in the majors with an 11.29 K/9 rate, and the Royals and their opponents have totaled seven or fewer runs in six of his seven starts. And while the Milwaukee Brewers are 13-6 away from home and have won three of their five games against left-handed starting pitchers, they also have struck out at the NL’s second-highest rate against southpaws. The Brewers also have not done a ton of damage when putting balls in play, with a collective .237 BABIP against left-handed pitchers.
We also expect Brewers righty Bryse Wilson to match zeros with Ragans, as he is coming off a career-best 2.58 ERA out of the bullpen last season, and this year is on pace for career-bests in strikeout rate (22.6%), hard-hit percentage allowed (34.4%), and xBA (.243). The Over is 10-3-1 in Milwaukee’s 14 interleague games this year, but this is too high of a total in a game with two starting pitchers who have been throwing so well thus far this season.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
Seattle Mariners (-122) vs. Minnesota Twins (+104) | O/U 7.5 (-102/-120)
The Minnesota Twins had their 12-game winning streak, which was tied for the second-longest streak in franchise history, snapped on Sunday, and it is fair to wonder whether the air will be out of the team’s balloon tonight after such an emotion-filled winning streak.
ESPN’s Buster Olney had reported that the Twins slashed .308/.377/.514 during the winning streak, with a +45 run differential, a 3.08 team ERA, and a 116:27 K:BB ratio. However, skeptics took some of that winning streak with a grain of salt (even though just four teams had winning streaks of 10-plus games last season), considering seven of those wins came against the lowly Chicago White Sox.
We expect the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners to present a much stiffer challenge than Minnesota has seen the last two weeks, especially with Luis Castillo on the mound. The team was 0-4 in Castillo’s first four starts, but have since won three straight, including consecutive wins against World Series contenders Atlanta and Texas. We expect Castillo to slow down a Minnesota offense that scored five or more runs in 10 of the 12 games during its winning streak. There is a seemingly big pitching mismatch, as Minnesota counters with Simeon Woods Richardson (its #24-ranked prospect), as the youngster has allowed barrels on a troubling 10.4% of at-bats and hard-hits on 42.9% of plate appearances in his career.
Minnesota is just 9-14 against teams over .500 this season, and the Mariners are rightful road favorites in this series opener.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-122)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.