Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (3/31)
When we get later in the Major League Baseball (MLB) season, Mondays will routinely be a popular off day around the league. However, on this last day of March, bettors and fans are treated to a 14-game MLB slate, with only the Yankees and Diamondbacks earning off days.
Monday is also a great day to capitalize on the overreactions of oddsmakers to the first weekend of the season, especially where National League playoff teams from a year ago like the Braves and Brewers are off to rough starts.
Read on for our top MLB best bets for Monday, March 31st.
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Monday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals (-105) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-115) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-118)
The Brewers should feel no shame in getting swept in the Bronx over the weekend, even if they own the worst run differential in the league (-22). The Yankees are always a dominant team at home and use the park’s short dimensions to their advantage. I expect Milwaukee will pitch much better in its home opener.
Elvin Rodriguez makes his MLB debut as an opener for a bullpen game, while the Royals counter with Kris Bubic. Bubic recorded eight strikeouts in his final spring start, coming off a season where he recorded a 15.5% swinging strike rate against his fastball last season.
The Royals have scored just 10 runs through three games this season, so I am backing the under in Milwaukee’s first game against a team that doesn’t feature New York’s home run-happy lineup.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-118)
New York Mets (-185) @ Miami Marlins (+154) | O/U 8.0 (-118/-102)
The Marlins are the first team to win their first three games via walk-off since Tampa Bay in 2003. While Miami’s bats tend to come alive against opposing bullpens late in the game, I am taking that out of the equation with a first five innings total wager.
New York’s David Peterson is 4-2 with a career 2.80 ERA and averages nearly a strikeout per inning (44 strikeouts in 45 innings) against the Marlins. Just last year alone, Peterson won both of his starts against the Marlins, despite walking six batters in 10 innings.
I also expect Cal Quantrill to match zeros with Peterson, as he induced a 44.4% ground ball rate and had a career-low 11.1 degree launch angle last season. Quantrill’s splitter was also +3.4 runs above average. The Mets should have difficulty breaking through for big innings against a solid ground ball pitcher like Quantrill.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 Runs (-130)
Texas Rangers (-125) @ Cincinnati Reds (+105) | O/U 9.0 (-102/-118)
The Reds are a trendy pick to be a surprise team in the National League. They look to even their record at .500 after losing two out of three to the Giants this weekend.
I believe in the culture that new manager Terry Francona will instill in the Reds clubhouse. I have no idea how Cincinnati is an underdog in this matchup, even if Rangers righty Kumar Rocker will be an ace-caliber starter in time.
Rocker had a rough spring, allowing 13 earned runs in 13 innings, and his control issues led to a high 2.077 WHIP. I expect the Reds, who also have the travel advantage of staying at home for a fourth consecutive game, to improve to 11-1 straight up (SU) in their last 12 games as home underdogs against American League West opponents.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (+105)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.