Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (8/31)
Between college football returning, European soccer in full swing (my best EPL bets here) and the MLB playoff race heating up, there's no shortage of exciting sports on the horizon this weekend. I'm keeping it on the diamond for my sweats today. Here are my three favorite wagers for Saturday's 15-game MLB slate.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles (-168) vs. Colorado Rockies (+142) | O/U 11.5 (-104/-118)
The Orioles got back into the win column last night, notching a 5-3 series-opening victory over the Rockies. The two sides are back at it tonight, and we have a pitching matchup between Dean Kremer and Ryan Feltner. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
The under cashed in last night's series opener, and I'm going right back to it tonight. Baltimore's offense has fallen off quite a bit over the last two weeks, ranking 27th in wRC+ (70) and 28th in wOBA (.263). The power numbers have diminished, as the Orioles are just 20th in ISO (.149) over the last 14 days.
Things might not get much easier tonight as the O's are running into Ryan Feltner. The right-hander has turned in three quality starts in his last five outings, logging a 3.24 ERA over the 25.0-inning stretch. As for Dean Kremer, he's riding a streak of three straight quality starts, posting a 2.50 ERA over the 18.0-inning sample size. This feels like a great spot to lock in the under with a classic inflated Coors Field total.
Bet: Under 11.5 Runs (-118)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) | O/U 9.0 (-114/-106)
We have a monumental series in The Valley this weekend as the Diamondbacks host the Dodgers for a trio of games. Los Angeles won 10-9 in last night's series opener. The divisional foes square off again tonight, and the pitching matchup features a battle between Gavin Stone and Merrill Kelly. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
I'm not going to overthink this one, I'm taking the over. These are two of the best offenses in the MLB. Arizona is ranked first in runs per game (5.36), while Los Angeles is third (4.98). In terms of recent form, the Diamondbacks are second in both wRC+ (122) and wOBA (.347) over the last 14 days, while sitting eighth in ISO (.185). The Dodgers are ninth (112), ninth (.328) and first (.214), respectively.
Both Stone (3.33 ERA) and Kelly (3.98 ERA) have been serviceable this year. However, the head-to-head numbers suggest those ERAs could balloon tonight. Over 234 at-bats, Los Angeles' current roster is slashing .303/.368/.491 against Kelly. Arizona's offense is slashing .353/.371/.441 against Stone over 34 at-bats. Let's back these red-hot offenses at a favorable number of 9.0, giving us push potential if they don't go nuclear.
Bet: Over 9.0 Runs (-114)
Seattle Mariners (-164) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+138) | O/U 8.0 (-110/-110)
The MLB nightcap comes out west as the Mariners take on the Angels. Bryan Woo heads to the bump for the M's, while the Halos counter with Tyler Anderson. This divisional showdown is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA.
Woo is set to make his 16th start of the 2024 campaign, and he's been lights out this season. He sits at 6-2, bringing in a 2.05 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. The right-hander has been even better over five starts this month, dropping his ERA to 1.59 over 34.0 innings of work. He's also riding a five-start quality start streak. I think Woo will keep it rolling tonight, ultimately guiding the Angels under their team total of 3.5 runs.
The opposition hasn't reached 4+ runs in any of Woo's last six starts, and I don't think the lowly Angels will be the team to break that streak. Over the last 14 days, Los Angeles is 29th in both wRC+ (65) and wOBA (.261), while sitting 26th in ISO (.131). They're also striking out a league-leading 29.9% over the 14 days of play. Seattle needs a win tonight, and I think Woo will turn in another big-time outing.
Bet: Angels Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-130)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: