Entering Tuesday, three winless teams (Braves, Twins, Brewers) all had +290 odds or shorter to win their respective divisions. That should serve as a reminder to bettors that we have seen a small four or five-game sample size to this point, and that the Major League Baseball season is very long.
In Atlanta’s case specifically, the schedule makers did not do it any favors by having them play road games in San Diego and Los Angeles to start the season.
Read on for our top MLB best bets for Wednesday, April 2nd.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals (-116) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-102) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)
Nationals southpaw MacKenzie Gore turned in a historic Opening Day start. Per MLB’s Sarah Langs, Gore’s 13 Opening Day strikeouts with no walks were tied for the third-most in the last 125 seasons with J.R. Richard and Hall of Famer Bob Gibson. He was also the second pitcher in the last 125 seasons with 10+ strikeouts and one or fewer hits allowed in an Opening Day start.
When Gore had nine strikeouts through four innings, he generated a 35.3% whiff rate and a 41.2% chase rate. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman entered the season with the third-highest fWAR among pitchers since the start of 2020. He allowed just three hits and two earned runs over six innings in his first start, which continued the momentum from a solid spring.
I am backing the red-hot southpaw to lead his team to a win as road favorites.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-116)
San Francisco Giants (+140) @ Houston Astros (-166) | O/U 8.0 (-112/-108)
Landen Roupp gets this start for the Giants after winning the last spot in the rotation to start the season. It should be a big adjustment for Roupp, who pitched mostly out of the bullpen during his rookie season. Roupp made 23 appearances, but just four starts, and his strikeout percentage and ground-ball rates were close to league average.
Roupp had control issues with a 12% walk rate last season. While he seemingly got that in order in the spring while walking just one of the 46 batters he faced, the Astros are one of the most patient lineups in baseball, and the pressure of the first start of a season is different than an exhibition game.
I expect Houston’s Framber Valdez to pitch well again, like he did when he tossed seven scoreless innings against the Mets on Opening Day. Not a single one of Valdez’s change-ups or curveballs were barreled, and his proStuff+ grades on each of those pitches were 121 or higher.
To maximize value on this play, we are eschewing Houston’s Moneyline odds and laying the 1.5 runs.
Pick: Astros -1.5 Runs (+130)
Boston Red Sox (-122) @ Baltimore Orioles (+102) | O/U 8.0 (-115/-105)
Boston’s Garrett Crochet has the second-shortest odds behind Tarik Skubal to win the American League Cy Young Award. And Baltimore’s lineup is not nearly as deadly against left-handed pitchers as it is righties.
Crochet has made three appearances against the Orioles, pitching to a 2.25 ERA while recording a massive 14.6 K/9 total. At some point, Rafael Devers has to break out of his slump to start the season. Facing Zach Eflin may be the time, as he has a career .375/.375/938 slash line and five extra-base hits in 16 at-bats against the Orioles righty.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-122)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
