Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/22)
The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a 35-14 start this season, something they have not done since the 1993 season when they reached the World Series.
However, oddsmakers remain skeptical about their chances to win the NL East (they currently have a six-game lead over the Atlanta Braves), as Atlanta’s -155 odds suggest regression is coming for a Phillies team that has played just three games against teams currently over .500.
By comparison, no other team in the league has played fewer than nine such games. Will they continue their winning ways against the defending World Series champions, Texas Rangers, after taking yesterday’s series opener?
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, May 22.
Wednesday’s Top MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-116) @ Kansas City Royals (-102) | O/U 7.5 (-102/-120)
Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans are two promising young pitchers who are on a path to being the aces of their franchises for many years to come in the AL Central. Skubal is also on the short list of early AL Cy Young Award candidates after starting 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA. He ended his last start with a 31.9% whiff rate and 31.6% strikeout rate, which were both fifth among qualified starting pitchers. He did not let the Arizona Diamondbacks sniff any chance of offensive success in his last start, holding them to one hit over six scoreless innings. He recorded five of his first seven outs on groundouts, followed by six strikeouts of the next eight batters.
The Over would be the contrarian play in this game despite both teams having winning records against left-handed starting pitchers (Kansas City is 6-4 and Detroit is 6-5). We are also getting an inflated total, considering Skubal is 2-7 with a 4.65 ERA lifetime in his career against Kansas City. Still, he turned the corner by holding them to one run in seven innings earlier this season.
Meanwhile, Ragans has only allowed a .135 xwOBA in 21 combined plate appearances against current Tigers hitters, and Detroit is in its worse hitting split. The Tigers have a .118 ISO, .268 BABIP and .345 slugging percentage against southpaws but a .146 ISO and .297 BABIP. They are also slugging .382 against righties.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
San Francisco Giants (+106) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-124) | O/U 7.5 (-108/-112)
Two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell returns to the Giants rotation after losing his first three starts and pitching to an 11.57 ERA and a troubling 1.971 WHIP in that span. However, we have reason for optimism that those days are well behind Snell, as he threw nine innings across two rehab starts and allowed zero hits while striking out 17.
Pittsburgh has been one of the worst offensive teams at home this season, entering Tuesday averaging 3.3 runs per game and ranking 27th in wRC+ while slashing a combined .221/.289/.359. Meanwhile, the Giants are 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.
San Francisco held Pittsburgh to six total runs in a home series win earlier this season, and considering the Pirates had cashed their team total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+16.40 units/39% ROI) entering Tuesday, it should not take much offense from San Francisco to earn this victory.
MLB Pick: Giants Moneyline (+106)
Seattle Mariners (+128) @ New York Yankees (-152) | O/U 8 (-118/-104)
The Yankees lost this series opener against the Mariners in the most bizarre fashion on Monday, as closer Clay Holmes blew a save with a 4-1 ninth-inning lead after having not allowed an earned run in any of his first 20 appearances. Thus, if there are any lingering issues at the back end of the bullpen, we are limiting this wager to the first five innings, as Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes has been dominant at home.
Cortes is 2-1 with a 1.67 ERA and a .168 OBA in five starts at Yankee Stadium this season, as opposed to 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA and .292 OBA in five road starts. He faces a Mariners lineup that strikes out at the fourth-highest rate against left-handed pitching this season (25%) and also ranks in the bottom-10 in BABIP.
Seattle makes its living on the long ball, with a top-four home run/fly ball rate (13.7%) against southpaws, but Cortes is the perfect foil to that, as he has allowed just two home runs in 35 2/3 innings at home this season.
We also expect the Yankees to jump all over Seattle’s Bryce Miller, who has allowed a .993 xSLG and .574 xwOBA to this Yankees lineup, albeit in limited action.
MLB Pick: Yankees First Five Innings -0.5 (-110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.