Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Friday (4/12)
We’ve got a full 15-game slate in the MLB tonight! There are plenty of spots I’m ready to attack.
Take a look at who I’m targeting for tonight’s MLB slate. I’ve got three player props I’ll be riding below to start off the weekend!
Friday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Bailey Falter to pitch against his former team, the Philadelphia Phillies. Some people are high on Falter after he allowed just one hit in six innings against the Orioles on April 6.
I’m not.
After all, Falter struck out just one batter in those six innings. He just got a little lucky when the ball was in play against the Orioles.
Don’t expect that to continue against the Phillies. Falter has allowed a .216 ISO to 41 batters. But even as a lefty, he’s given up a .444 ISO and wOBA of .406 against other lefties. He’s also allowed 55.6% of fly balls and just 11.1% of ground balls.
While it’s only been two games and a small sample size, Falter allowed a .348 ISO and wOBA of .472 with under 30% of ground balls to lefties last year as well.
On the other hand, Bryce Harper has a .224 ISO and a .376 wOBA against his last 192 lefties since last season. I’ll take my chances with Harper here.
Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Max Fried’s start to the season hasn’t been enjoyable. The Atlanta lefty has allowed an 18.00 ERA in two games and has only thrown five innings in two starts. His WHIP has reached 3.20.
The 24 righties that have faced Fried have already hit a .190 ISO and wOBA of .449.
While Fried will likely get back on track and pitch better against the Marlins, he’ll more than likely struggle with one batter in the Marlins lineup: Jake Burger. Burger has hit a .279 ISO and wOBA of .355 against his last 160 lefties.
Since last season, Burger has been one of the only consistent hitters against lefties. With Fried’s struggles, we’ll back Burger to do some damage tonight.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Our third play will be Yordan Alvarez, who will earn at least two total bases tonight. Alvarez is in line to face Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Dunning is a right-handed pitcher who has watched his first 11 batters hit a .429 ISO and wOBA of .388.
Those 11 batters have also hit 45.5% of fly balls and just 26.4% of ground balls against Dunning. In addition, Dunning has also struck out just 16.7% of lefties to begin the year.
Striking out lefties was hard for him last year. Dunning also allowed a .348 wOBA to lefties and gave up more than 25% of line drives to them last season.
On the other hand, Alvarez has hit a .318 ISO and wOBA of .433 against righties dating back to last season. He’s also hit 62.2% of hard contact with nearly 40% of fly balls against righties. Let’s roll with Alvarez to earn at least two total bases.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: