Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/19)
We’ve got a full 15-game slate today! With 30 starting pitching and 270 position players starting, there are plenty of prop bets to consider for tonight’s action.
Here are a few MLB prop bets that I’ll be attacking tonight.
Friday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Triston Casas Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
It’ll be Quinn Priester for his season debut tonight. There were rumblings that it could’ve been Paul Skenes from Triple-A. However, Skenes won’t make his MLB debut this week after throwing in yesterday’s Triple-A game.
That said, Priester is a right-handed thrower who allowed a .344 ISO and wOBA of .464 to 115 lefties last year. In addition, he also allowed more walks than strikeouts earned against lefties last season.
The Red Sox will have plenty of lefties in the lineup, but Triston Casas stands out the most. Since last season, Casas has hit a .223 ISO and wOBA of .370 against righties. He’s also smacked 53.3% of hard contact and a 13.1% barrel percentage against righties.
He’s got great potential against Priester tonight.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Tampa Bay will roll with Tyler Alexander for the first game of its series against the Yankees. Alexander, a left-handed pitcher, has watched his first 50 righties hit a .298 ISO and wOBA of .472.
Beyond that, Alexander has earned just 28.2% of ground balls and has given up 30.8% of line drives with another 28.2% of fly balls.
That’s not ideal when facing Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge is a right-handed hitter who has smacked a .358 ISO and wOBA of .416 against lefties since last season. While Judge walks most of the time against lefties, Alexander has only walked 6% of righties this season and just 4.1% of righties the previous year. Alexander attacks hitters, but that might hurt him against Judge.
Bobby Witt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Dean Kremer will take the ball for the Orioles tonight. Kremer was horrible against lefties last season after allowing a .203 ISO and wOBA of .359 to 342 lefties.
However, this season, he’s been way worse against righties. His first 38 righties have smacked a .270 ISO and wOBA of .410 with 40% of fly balls and just 21.1% of strikeouts.
Kremer has also walked none of his first 38 righties. That’s ideal, knowing walks don’t count for total bases. That said, since last season, Witt has knocked a .226 ISO and wOBA of .355 with only 17.7% of strikeouts against righties. He’s also got the wheels to stretch a single into a double and earn two bases on one hit.
Any matchup is good for Witt. He’s one of the league’s best players this year. But he stands out even more against Kremer tonight. So let’s go with it. Back Witt to earn at least two total bases tonight.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: