Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/3)
There are 15 games on the MLB slate tonight!
While there’s some rain in the forecast in many areas tonight, we’ll skip through those games and provide three player props for the games that will have no impact of rain tonight.
Let’s have a day!
Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Bryan Reynolds has hit a .231 ISO and wOBA of .354 using last year’s stats and his current stats this season through 441 plate appearances.
Tonight, he’ll take on Trevor Williams of the Nationals, a right-handed pitcher who allowed a .209 ISO and wOBA of .377 to lefties last year.
This will be Williams’ first start of the season. But he ultimately struck out just 13.1% of lefties last year and allowed 26.3% of fly balls with just about 40% of ground balls.
Between this year and last, Reynolds smacked 33.1% of fly balls and line drives and hit 54.4% of hard contact. Let’s take a chance on Reynolds.
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
The Blue Jays will send out Chris Bassitt for tonight’s game against the Astros. Bassitt already allowed six hits and four runs in five innings against Tampa Bay, and it won’t get easier against Houston.
Dating back to last season, Bassitt has allowed a .240 ISO and wOBA of .363 to 401 lefties.
Kyle Tucker has a .211 ISO and wOBA of .362, with only 15.5% of strikeouts against righties in that same time period.
For whatever reason, Tucker has struggled against Bassitt throughout his career. He’s hit one home run in just 20 at-bats and has a .100 average. But it’s a new season, and Tucker has some really good analytics against righties.
At the end of the day, Bassitt has really struggled against lefties, and Tucker is one of the best lefties in the MLB. He rarely strikes out against righties, which is ultimately really good for any total base number. You can expect Tucker to put the ball in play every time he’s up against Bassitt.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
We don’t have a huge sample size from Kyle Harrison.
He’s only thrown in eight career games and has a 3.98 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 40.2 innings. There’s a lot of potential with Harrison. However, early on, he’s struggled against lefties.
Harrison has allowed a .306 ISO and wOBA of .458 to 43 lefties throughout his career. He’s also struck out just 4.7% of lefties in that time frame.
Therefore, you can pick your poison between Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. They’ve both dominated lefties over the last year.
Ohtani hit a .289 ISO and wOBA of .378, but has struck out 27.5% of the time against lefties in 167 plate appearances. However, Freeman has hit a .270 ISO and wOBA of .434 with only 18% of strikeouts. Freeman matches up better against Harrison, so I’ll be rolling with him.
He’s hit 53.1% of hard contact and has limited ground balls to just 38.1% against lefties. Meanwhile, Ohtani has hit 49.5% of ground balls against lefties and only 21.6% of line drives, while Freeman has slugged 28.1% of line drives.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: