We’ve got a smaller Sunday slate than usual on March 30th, with four teams getting days off, including the Mets, Astros, Tigers and Dodgers. We can still find value on today’s board, though, including one strikeout prop and two walk props.
In today’s article, we’ll be fading Tanner Bibee while riding with both Tomoyuki Sugano and Max Meyer to keep their command in check. Let’s start on a positive note in my debut article for MLB props.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Sunday, March 30th.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tanner Bibee Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Tanner Bibee put up a 26.3% strikeout rate last season, which works out to a 9.69 K/9, so you may be wondering why this line is so low at 4.5.
The reason for that is that the Royals do a great job putting the ball in play, registering a 17.9% strikeout rate at home last season. Part of this is because of hitters such as Vinnie Pasquantino (12.8% strikeout rate) and Bobby Witt Jr. (15% strikeout rate). But it’s also because of Kauffman Stadium, which suppresses strikeouts more than any other ballpark, per Baseball Savant.
It’s also worth noting this is a re-scheduled start for Bibee, who was supposed to pitch on Opening Day but was scratched due to food poisoning. Disruption in routine is never a good thing for a pitcher.
Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 Walks (-115)
Tomoyuki Sugano is making his MLB debut, giving us a chance to capitalize on a discounted price on his walks prop.
This is a pitcher who routinely displayed strong control in Japan, posting a 5.5% or better walk rate in each of his seven seasons. To put that in perspective, a 5.5% walk rate works out to a 2.1 BB/9.
The 35-year-old righty is projected to have a short outing today, as highlighted by his 14.5 outs prop, which is juiced to the over (-180) at DraftKings Sportsbook. That gives him a five-inning projection, making it easier to stay under 1.5 walks in this spot.
Max Meyer Under 1.5 Walks (+150)
Max Meyer has struggled with control throughout the minors, including a 9.4% walk rate in 58 innings at Triple-A last season. But I’m willing to take a shot on under 1.5 walks for a couple of key reasons.
The first one is the price (+150). When we compare that price to Meyer’s 45.4% hit rate on under 1.5 walks, we’re getting some value, since (+150) works out to a 40% implied probability.
On top of that, you have to think Meyer will have a short outing today - likely capped at five innings since it’s his first start of the season. Add in the fact we’ve seen improved results in spring training - including a 3.6% walk rate - and you can see why this is an appealing wager.
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Frank Ammirante is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow Frank on X @FAmmiranteTFJ.
