Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Thursday (3/27)
While the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs have already played a two-game set as part of the Tokyo Series, the official start to the baseball season happens on Thursday with 14 games on the Opening Day slate.
There is an abundance of afternoon games bettors can wager on, with 11 of the 14 games in the 4:15 p.m. ET or earlier time slot. With just three games with a total of more than 7.5 runs, we are left to decide if that means pitching will dominate, or if any hitters can make a big splash on Opening Day.
Read on for our top MLB player prop bets for Thursday, March 27th.
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Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Austin Wells Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+110)
We are having some fun with our first MLB player prop selection, highlighting the rare occurrence surrounding this pick. In the proud history of the New York Yankees, never before have they had a catcher bat leadoff in a regular-season game.
Thus, we are expecting Austin Wells to have some fun with this rare role. He certainly had a productive enough spring to cash this wager.
Wells raked in the Grapefruit League, batting .372 with six home runs and a 1.263 OPS in 15 games. He may not have to rely on Aaron Judge or those batting behind him to drive him in, as Wells hit one of his home runs out of the leadoff spot to begin a game.
This is one of the few games with a total of 8.0 or higher. With New York being a -155 Moneyline favorite, these are good odds to expect Wells to be one of the Yankees to cross the plate.
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
In today’s more modern game of baseball, starting pitchers are throwing fewer innings, especially early in the season when managers are trying to ramp them up slowly. However, Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is an exception to that rule, as he was an innings eater early and often for his club last season.
Wheeler recorded at least 18 outs in five of his first six starts through the end of April last season. Those longer outings resulted in high strikeout totals, as he finished with eight or more strikeouts in four of those starts, with five strikeouts apiece in the other two.
Wheeler changed his approach slightly last year, using his cutter less, and going more with a sweeper that opponents batted just .143 against.
Wheeler faces a Washington Nationals lineup that has roughed him up a bit in his career, with half of their 42 hits being extra-base hits (including 10 home runs). While the Nationals collectively are slashing .246/.282/.492 against Wheeler, 50 of their 171 at-bats have ended in strikeouts. Thus, I am happy to back Wheeler at plus-money odds to record seven or more strikeouts.
Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-150)
Paul Skenes could not have asked for a much better assignment for an Opening Day start, as the Miami Marlins figure to be one of the worst offensive teams in Major League Baseball this year.
Skenes has his over of 6.5 strikeouts juiced to -145 and the under on his 1.5 earned runs allowed juiced to -205. Thus, the best value is the under on his walk total, despite him issuing nine walks in 18 innings in spring training.
Skenes had a 2.2 BB/9 rate last season, but I do not expect the Pirates coaching staff to push Skenes much early, especially if he is on another somewhat strict innings limit.
Look for Skenes to go right after the light-hitting Marlins, who were the National League’s worst team in terms of on-base percentage (OBP) last season.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.