We’re about a week into the MLB season. It’s been super exciting cashing in on many bets. But we’re only just getting started.
Here are three MLB player props to consider for today’s slate of games.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Wednesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Using last year’s and this year’s stats, Jackson Merrill has socked a .230 ISO and wOBA of .381 against his last 442 at-bats against righties. The left-handed slugger is hitting clean-up for the Padres and will battle Ben Lively of the Cleveland Guardians.
Lively is a right-handed pitcher who already allowed a .400 ISO and wOBA of .426 in his first start of the season against 10 lefties. Last year, Lively allowed a .194 ISO and wOBA of .320 to 305 left-handed hitters and struck lefties out only 19.3% of the time.
Merrill has limited strikeouts against righties to 17.6% since last season. He’s also added more fly balls than ground balls against righties.
Let’s take a chance with Merrill to add at least two total bases in today’s ball game.
Luis Castillo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-102)
The Mariners will run it back with Luis Castillo today. The right-hander struck out only 19% of batters in his first start of the season. However, last year, he struck out 24.3% of batters and 28.8% of right-handed batters.
Castillo is in line to face a Detroit Tigers projected lineup that should have at least four righties who have all struck out at least 24% of the time. Those four righties in the lineup have combined to strike out 30.5% of the time against righties dating back to last season.
In addition, the Tigers’ entire lineup has struck out 26.3% of the time against righties, and there are seven batters with strikeout rates of at least 23.3% against righties. I’ll trust Castillo to earn at least seven strikeouts. Logan Gilbert got 10 last night.
Zack Wheeler Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Asking for nine strikeouts from any pitcher at +102 odds is suspect. Hear me out.
Zack Wheeler struck out 40% of his first 20 batters faced this season. He also struck out 28.6% of batters all of last year.
Tonight, he’ll battle a Rockies offense that has struck out 28.2% of the time against righties since last season. The projected lineup has eight batters who have struck out at least 23.9% of the time against righties since last season. Only Kyle Farmer has struck out fewer, but he’s still struck out more than 21% of the time against righties.
Ultimately, Wheeler has the potential to strike out any better in that Rockies lineup. The Rockies lineup has also hit a .153 ISO and wOBA of .294 with 28.2% of strikeouts as a group dating back to last year. This is with using 2,410 at-bats against righties. The Colorado lineup will more than likely struggle against Wheeler. Let’s back him to record at least nine strikeouts.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
