Top 3 MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/14)
There were only supposed to be two games on today’s MLB slate. But since the Yankees and Guardians rained out last night, we’ve got three games ready to be played today.
Rain could still be an issue in New York, but for now, that game will be scheduled in an early time slot of 1:07 pm ET. The other two NLDS games will be played later, with the Phillies and Braves at 4:37 pm ET and the Dodgers and Padres playing at 8:37 pm ET.
With three games on the horizon, here are our picks and predictions for the entire slate of games in the Divisional Series.
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(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Top 3 MLB Divisional Series Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/14)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
I liked the under in this game yesterday, and I won’t change my opinion today.
Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees. He has a 3.66 xFIP over the last 30 days and has also earned 32.2% of strikeouts in that time frame.
Walks can get a bit high for Cortes, but he’s limited extra-base hits very well on both sides of the plate. The Guardians are hitting a .102 ISO as a projected lineup against lefties over the last 30 days and have walked under 4% of the time. Cleveland’s scored just four runs in three games in the postseason. That won’t be enough if they want to move on in the playoffs.
On the other hand, Shane Bieber will get the call. He had already started the first game of the Wild Card Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, where he eventually helped Cleveland earn a 2-1 win. He allowed just one run and pitched deep into the game.
In the last 30 days, Bieber has had a 3.05 xFIP. Although his strikeout rate is slightly lower in the previous 30 days, he’s induced 54.9% of ground balls. Bieber has given up some power to lefties. Therefore, batters like Anthony Rizzo and Oswaldo Cabrera have an advantage in this game.
But that advantage won’t be enough for the Yankees to put up tons of runs against Bieber and the Guardians. I like the under in this game.
Bet: Under 6 (+110 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Atlanta Braves will start Spencer Strider for today’s game. It’s unclear on how deep he can go, but he’s the better option in comparison to Charlie Morton.
Strider has had a 2.97 xFIP this season with 38.3% of strikeouts. He will not induce a lot of grounders and will allow some line drives. But ultimately, he’s hard to hit in the first place.
Strider has kept power numbers down against both sides of the plate and rarely allowed base runners throughout the season, giving a wOBA of .241 to lefties and a .233 wOBA to righties this season.
With their projected lineup, the Phillies have hit a .163 ISO and wOBA of .299 against righties over the last 30 days. Only Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto have hit with consistency against righties in the Philadelphia lineup. However, the ballclub has still hit 22.4% of line drive against righties in those last 30 days.
On the other hand, Aaron Nola will get the start. He’s got a 2.65 xFIP over the last month. The Phillies’ ace has struck out 31% of batters and has walked under 5%. He’s also earning nearly 49% of grounders while keeping extra-base hits to a minimum on both sides of the plate.
Atlanta’s got the more potent offense. However, they’ve also struck out 23.7% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. I’ll give the nod to Philadelphia at home.
Bet: Phillies (-120 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the Dodgers. However, he’ll be on a 75-pitch pitch count in this one. The right-hander has just returned from injury and faced nine batters since returning.
On the season, he finished with a 16-1 record and had a low ERA of 2.14. Analytically, he finished with a 4.19 xFIP. Either way, San Diego has been inconsistent over the last month against righties, hitting a .140 ISO and wOBA of .303 using the projected lineup. Only Juan Soto and Manny Machado have shown off some power.
On the other hand, Blake Snell will get his second postseason start. The first one didn’t go as planned against the Mets. But with San Diego at home, that could help him settle in.
He’s struck out 33.6% of batters over the last month but has also walked nearly 11%.
The Dodgers are hitting a .159 ISO with a wOBA of .266 against lefties while also striking out 25.3% of the time. Those dominant Dodgers aren’t very dominant against lefties.
If Snell can limit the walks, I’ve got the Padres sneaking by in tonight’s game at home.
Bet: Padres (+100 at DraftKings )
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