Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, January 18th (2022)

After a busy Monday, the NBA has left us with just a pair of games tonight. We’ve an early game between the Knicks and Timberwolves and a late one between the Pistons and Warriors. We don’t have a lot of options, but I’ve found some value bets anyway.

Here are my top NBA betting picks for Tuesday’s action.

Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

Written Picks YTD: 74-77-0 (+10.1u)
Model ATS Picks YTD: 83-65-2 (+10.5u)*
Model ML Picks YTD: 19-31 (+9.4u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for the model’s picks. 

1. Warriors and Pistons Under 218.5 | -110 at FD Sportsbook

This total doesn’t make much sense. Sure, the Warriors have been playing worse defense without Draymond Green. They’re still playing good defense - the Warriors rank 11th in defensive efficiency through the last three games, and they gave up just 105.7 baskets per 100 possessions through that stretch. Also, the Pistons aren’t the worst team defensively, either. They rank 23rd in defensive efficiency on the year but allow only 108.3 baskets per 100 possessions, which, when added to what Golden State has been giving up recently, gives us 214. That figure sits comfortably below this total.

Also, the trends point to considerable value here as well. The Pistons have played in seven back-to-back sets this year, and the second leg of those went Over just once. The Pistons will also have less rest than the Warriors headed into this one, and the Under has gone 9-2-1 when Detroit plays with a rest disadvantage. Likewise, the Under has gone 10-3 when Golden State plays with a rest advantage.

The books know that they can get away with jacking up this total because of the public. The people want to see a shootout between Cade Cunningham and Stephen Curry, which is why 66% of the tickets have come in on the Over but only 55% of the cash. Oh well, more money for us.

2. Warriors 3Q -4.5 | +100 at FD Sportsbook

It’s always risky to jump in on the third quarter without knowing how the first two will go, especially in what figures to be a blowout. But we’re going to do that anyway. The Golden State Warriors lead the NBA in average third-quarter margin (+4.6) which itself points to slight value on this spread. But the Detroit Pistons also rank last in third-quarter margin (-3.2).

Steve Kerr’s ability to adjust after halftime explains this advantage. The Warriors score the third-most points per third quarter (29.1) and allow the fewest (24.5). And despite their recent injuries, the Warriors have maintained their dominance in the third frame. In their last three games, they have won the third quarter by an average of 6.3 points! That’s despite moderate regression defensively, too, as their points allowed ticked up to 26.7.

In contrast, the Pistons can’t seem to find any offense in the third quarter. They rank dead last in points per third quarter (24.7), and things would be much worse for them if they didn’t at least rank 21st in third-quarter points allowed.

I don’t love how high this number currently sits, but I do like the fact that we’re getting it in the plus money. Let’s roll the dice and hope to double our money.

3. Timberwolves 1Q ML | -125 at DK Sportsbook

I think the Timberwolves win this game, but I have no idea if they’ll cover, and I don’t think their current moneyline odds (-150) offer enough betting value to target. As such, we’re playing this line instead.

I expect Minnesota to get out to a strong start over Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks. The Timberwolves have the fifth-best first-quarter margin in the NBA (+2.2), and that margin in their last three opening frames (+5.0) is even more impressive. In contrast, the Knicks tend to start slowly. They rank 21st in first-quarter margin (-0.9), although they have been better of late, as the margin of their last three first quarters (+0.3) indicates.

Although Madison Square Garden can cause problems for opposing teams, it hasn’t helped much early in games this year. The Knicks have a worse first-quarter margin at home (-1.4) than they do on the road (-0.4). And while Minnesota has a better margin at home (+2.8), the team still usually wins their opening frames on the road (+1.6).

Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced sports betting strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.