Top 3 NBA Playoffs Odds & Picks: Sunday (4/28)
The NBA First Round Playoff action has been heating up. As we come into Sunday we're starting to get towards the finish line of some of these exciting series. There are three key Game 4's on the slate with either 3-1 or 2-2 implications, while the night cap could see Minnesota sweep the Suns in four. Let's take a deeper look into some of my best bets.
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Sunday's Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
The Clippers took a huge punch in the mouth on Friday night against Dallas. An 18-point differential in the second quarter propelled the Mavericks to a 101-90 win to give Dallas a 2-1 series lead. Although the Mavericks looked phenomenal and the Clippers struggled, the line has swung way too much in Dallas's favor.
It's clear Kawhi Leonard isn't 100% right now, but it was the play of Paul George that really cemented the Clippers' fate on Friday night. The two stars combined to shoot 7-of-18 for 16 points. They'll both need to play better and I believe they will. George had put up 22 points in each of the first two games of this series and provided a strong offensive duo with James Harden. I expect him to have a bounce-back game here and if Kawhi can add anything it will be a plus.
This series has been way too close for the Mavericks to be six-point favorites in Game 4. The series has been played at a glacial pace with some low-scoring affairs. Outside of a few blowout quarters, the action has been tight so I like Los Angeles to bounce back and keep this one tighter on Sunday.
Pick: Clippers +6 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers
The Bucks are in a tight spot down 2-1 to the Pacers with a road Game 4 on the schedule for Sunday. It's as close to a must-win game for them as you'll get in a series as they don't want to fall down 3-1. I'm not sure they have the ability, without Giannis Antetokounmpo, to pull it off but I'm not messing with the side. I'm focusing on the total.
Throughout this series, the total has continued to drop game by game. Game 1 went way under the 230 that was being hung at many books. We then saw Games 2 and 3 go over, yet the total has dropped yet again for Game 4. Looking at the box scores this makes sense.
In Game 2, Indiana shot 55.6% from the floor including 44.4% from beyond the arc. The Bucks shot well too, but they've been doing that all series. This performance from the Pacers was an outlier though as they've compiled just a 41.3% FG% and 24.1% 3P% in the rest of the series. Throw in a game that would have gone under if not for overtime and an outlier 44 made free throws in Game 3 and those Overs don't look sustainable.
The Milwaukee defense has given Indiana a tough time this series after they allowed them to scorch the nets in the regular season. Milwaukee will need to bring that same intensity in this one. Expect this game to slow down a bit more too as every possession will be key for the Bucks. I'm expecting water to find its level and this game to go Under.
Pick: Under 217 Total Points (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns
The first three games of this series haven't been particularly close. Minnesota has used big quarters to pull away from Phoenix and rocket out to a 3-0 lead in the series. They'll be tasked with trying to put away the experienced Suns team on Sunday night, but is the task too tall for the young Timberwolves?
The Timberwolves have taken care of business by dominating the glass. Minnesota is +44 in the rebounding differential this series and that has made all of the difference. This has been an interesting development in the series since the regular season numbers indicate these teams aren't that far off. Phoenix was 11th in offensive rebounding rate and around league average on the defensive end. If they can even out that aspect of the game and eliminate the Minnesota second chance opportunities they'll give themselves a shot in Game 4.
Phoenix will need to play much better on the defensive end, particularly from two-point areas. Minnesota has shot 55.4% from inside the arc this series which has been a change from what we saw Phoenix do defensively during the regular season. The Suns were second in the league in defensive midrange FG% and eighth at the rim. Their defense is capable of slowing down what Minnesota has done offensively, they just need to execute. In a win-or-go-home game for Phoenix, I think we finally see them clean this up and extend the series to Game 5.
Pick: Suns Moneyline (+105)