Top 3 NBA Playoffs Odds & Picks: Sunday (5/19)
The two greatest words in sports “Game 7.†We get two of them on Sunday. The Pacers attempt to upset the Knicks in Madison Square Garden followed by the defending champ Nuggets trying to stay alive with their backs on the ropes against the Timberwolves. It should be an exciting and memorable day of NBA action. Here are my top NBA picks for Sunday.
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Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks NBA Picks
The Knicks had every opportunity to close out this series in Game 6 in Indianapolis. They took a lead into the second quarter before the Pacers pulled away, never looking back. The Knicks, being the home team, are favored in Game 7 but I’m not so sure they should be.
Indiana has looked like the better team for five of the six games this series. The Knicks shot lights out from deep early in the series, nearly 50% from beyond the arc through the first three games. That lethal mark did not continue as they got boat-raced in Game 4 and have proceeded to shoot only 30% from beyond the arc in the last three contests.
The New York offense slowed down so much that many thought the Pacers could close this out in six games, but an uncharacteristically terrible game taking care of the ball with 18 turnovers to the Knicks’ nine, along with an abysmal rebounding effort led to a blowout loss. Indiana was able to clean those up in the Game 6 win and I believe it won’t rear its ugly head again in Game 7. Indiana has been the better team for much of the series and the short-handed Knicks can only keep this up for so long.
NBA Picks: Pacers +3 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets NBA Picks
One thing that often defines Game 7’s: the defensive battles. Historically these win-or-go-home games are the lowest scoring in the series. The current totals you can find all sit under 200 points so the books are expecting a defensive battle between two of the league’s best units.
I lean to the Under but these low totals can be fickle. Many bettors have caught onto the trends and totals that may have sat around 205 are now closer to 195. There just isn’t as much value. You aren’t getting much protection against a game that could come down to late free throws or even overtime. That’s why I’m targeting an early total, the first quarter. So far in this series, we’ve seen totals of 48, 48, 48, 53, 54 and 45. We’re getting 48.5 on the first quarter total. These teams will come out slow as they try to feel each other out and the defenses will shine early. We’ve already seen this go under in four of six games this series. I like it again in Game 7.
With defense being paramount, and two elite defensive teams on display in this game, offensive execution becomes more important. Denver won their championship last year with excellent offensive execution against some elite defensive teams and that’s how they got back to where they are now. The Nuggets’ offensive rating this year has been fourth-best in the league. Their shotmaking has been eighth best by eFG% and they sit in the top 10 in both turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate. This is a unit I trust.
Minnesota has had its moments. They’re a great shooting team with a 10th-ranked eFG% but their turnover rate and offensive rebounding percentages fall well below league average. They’re also a young team that hasn’t been in these big postseason situations together. That factor is huge. Denver should be the more comfortable team in a home arena that has been difficult for opposing teams even with how the first two games of this series played out.
Denver has looked disinterested for much of this series, but it has felt like playing with their food. They should put the pedal to the metal in this game and out-execute the young Timberwolves team.
NBA Picks: Nuggets -4.5 (-115) & 1Q Total u48.5 (-115)