Navigate

Top 3 NFL Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Conference Championships

by |

Another year, another AFC Championship featuring Patrick Mahomes. That’s now six in a row for the Chiefs. Can the Ravens spoil their attempt at back-to-back Super Bowls? Can the Lions knock off the 49ers to have the chance at their first Super Bowl title? An action-packed Championship Sunday awaits.

Let's take a look at our top player prop bets for this Championship Sunday, featuring the Chiefs at the Ravens and the Lions at the 49ers.

Use our NFL Same Game Parlay Builder to Craft Highly Correlated Winning Bets! >>

Best NFL Championship Sunday Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Patrick Mahomes Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

I understand Mahomes can make big plays with his legs if the defense makes a mistake, but this number feels way too high. This is one of the more dominant defenses we’ve seen in the past few years, as they are stacked at all three levels. They have a superstar LB tandem in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. These linebackers have the speed and intelligence to make plays from sideline to sideline. Last week, they held the Texans to 38 total rushing yards as a team. Oh, and they’ll also have the All-Pro S Kyle Hamilton lurking around for Mahomes to take off.

Ravens Defensive Coordinator Mike MacDonald is having a fantastic year with this defense, and I believe he’ll have his players prepared to contain Mahomes’ scrambling with a great game plan. I believe they’ll force Mahomes to make big-time throws to beat them and not let him pick up first downs with his legs.

Gus Edwards Alternate Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (+135)

Watching the first half of the Chiefs-Bills game, it seemed like Buffalo could get whatever they wanted in the run game. James Cook, Ty Johnson and Josh Allen were gashing the Chiefs up the middle. It even left Tony Romo shocked on the broadcast at how much success the Bills’ interior linemen were having. They finished the day with 172 rushing yards between the three of them, and it would have been even more if the Bills hadn’t gotten away from the run game in the last 20 minutes of gameplay. If the Bills can have this success on the ground, there’s no question the Ravens will look to exploit this as well. It’s the strength of their team, and I could see Gus Edwards getting close to 15-17 carries in this game if they can maintain a lead.

Look for the Ravens to pound the run game with their bruiser Gus Edwards all afternoon to wear out the Chiefs.

Jared Goff Under 257.5 Passing Yards (-115)

While the 49ers’ Secondary has been their weakness this season, I’m actually going with Jared Goff’s under on passing yards. Believe it or not, San Francisco’s defense gets pressure on the QB at one of the highest rates in the league, while their blitz percentage was one of the lowest in the second half of the season. The Lions will be without OL Jonah Jackson, and C Frank Ragnow is also banged up but should be good to play.

Getting pressure on Goff seems key to disrupting him, but even more so when teams get pressure without the blitz. He’s smart enough to find holes against the blitz, but when a four-man rush gets pressure, it really seems to get to him. The 49ers must be careful on intermediate routes over the middle to TE Sam LaPorta and WR Amon-ra St. Brown. San Francisco can’t let these players carve them up like they’ve done to teams all year. I also expect the Lions to run the rock with their stud backfield tandem, as it could be a good formula to win on the road in January. Take Goff’s under here in a hostile San Francisco environment.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App