Top 3 NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/9)
We have a loaded 10-game slate of hockey on Friday with some great matchups. Below, I give out my three best bets for Friday’s NHL slate.
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Odds courtesy of bet365
New York Rangers (-150) @ Colorado Avalanche (+130) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)
The Central Division’s Colorado Avalanche host the Metropolitan Division’s New York Rangers. Injuries have plagued the Avs to start the season, which is why the defending Cup Champions currently sit fourth in the Central Division.
For this contest, Colorado is expected to miss Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Evan Rodrigues, Artturi Lehkonen, and Bowen Byram. That is just an absurd amount of firepower on the inactive list, which is why the Avs have been struggling to create high-danger scoring chances.
At 5v5, Colorado ranks 22nd in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). However, their defense has continued to play well as they remain relatively healthier than the offensive group.
At 5v5, the Avs rank ninth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing up this strong defense is goaltender Alexandar Georgiev, who is projected to get the start against his former team.
Through 17 starts this year, Georgiev is 11-5-1 with a .918 SV% and 2.76 GAA. Based on his metrics, regression should not be too much of an issue as he ranks 14th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.
Across the ice, reigning Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin is slated to get the start for the Rangers. Through 20 starts this season, Shesterkin is 12-4-4 with a .913 SV% and 2.58 GAA.
Among starting goaltenders, he ranks ninth in GSAx/60 at 5v5. In front of Shesterkin is a defense that also ranks in the top half of the league in xGA/60 at 5v5.
Shesterkin and Georgiev went toe-to-toe back on October 25 in a game that Colorado won in a shootout by a score 0f 3-2. In my first two-unit play of the season, I am taking the 60-minute line of Under 6 at -120 in what should be a game similar to their previous meeting.
The 60-minute line is simply to protect us from a 3-3 overtime result, which would then be a push.
Best Bet: 60-Minute Line Under 6 (-120) – 2u
Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) @ Buffalo Sabres (+130) | O/U 6.5 (-135/+115)
We have an Eastern Conference tilt with the Atlantic Division’s Buffalo Sabres hosting the Metropolitan Division’s Pittsburgh Penguins. Buffalo won the first meeting between these two clubs this season on November 2 by a score of 6-3.
While the Sabres may or may not come away victorious again, scoring should not be an issue. Buffalo has started to turn things around recently, winning five of their last eight games.
Over that stretch, their offense has been buzzing as they have scored four or more goals in seven of those eight contests. Based on their metrics, regression should not be an issue as Buffalo ranks 10th in the league in xGF/60 at 5v5.
The top-six forward group has been scoring at an insanely high clip recently, which could continue against Pittsburgh. Backup goaltender Casey DeSmith is likely to get the start in this contest given that this is the first of a home-and-home series with the Sabres and that Tristan Jarry has started in four straight games.
While DeSmith is a capable backup, his game has started to regress recently. Over his last three starts, he is 1-2 with a .895 SV% and 3.68 GAA.
This recent drop in production was predictable given his metrics. If he qualified, DeSmith would rank 24th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
In front of DeSmith is a blue line that is missing its best player as Kris Letang continues to recover from the stroke he suffered at the end of November. Projected to go against a backup netminder and a blue line without its best player, the Sabres should be able to keep scoring at a high clip in this contest.
Best Bet: Sabres Team Total Over 3.5 (+120)
New York Islanders (+180) @ New Jersey Devils (-220) | O/U 6 (-105/-115)
There is a Metropolitan Division tilt set to take place with the first-place New Jersey Devils hosting the fourth-place New York Islanders. The Devils won the first meeting between these two clubs this season 4-1, a result that could happen once again in this matchup.
New Jersey boasts the most efficient blue line in hockey, ranking first in the league in xGA/60 at 5v5. Spearheading this defense is the best defensive tandem in the league this season, Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler, a pairing that boasts a 65% xGoals% through 367 minutes played together.
Backing up this elite defense is goaltender Vitek Vanecek, who has been terrific for New Jersey since getting shipped over from Washington over the off-season. Through 17 appearances in the crease, Vanecek is 12-2-1 with a .922 SV% and 2.10 GAA.
Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue moving forward as he ranks 11th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5. New York’s offense should struggle in this contest as they rank just 20th in the league in xGF/60 at 5v5.
Going against a Devils team that has allowed two or fewer goals in 10 of their last 12 games is not an ideal spot to turn things around offensively.
Best Bet: Islanders Team Total Under 2.5 (-120)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.