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Top 3 Purdue vs. UConn Player Prop Bet Picks (2024 NCAA Tournament)

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UConn head coach Danny Hurley can join John Wooden, Mike Krzyzewski and Billy Donovan as the only coaches since 1965 to lead their teams to back-to-back NCAA Tournament championships. Meanwhile, Purdue’s Matt Painter already is mentioned along with Virginia’s Tony Bennett as the only two coaches to ever lose to No. 16 seeds, but looks to join Bennett as coaches who won the national championship the year following those historic losses. However, this article is all about the players, and “old school” basketball purists have to love this matchup, as two 7-foot-plus big men anchor the paint in what should be an exciting finale. Read on to see how Purdue’s Zach Edey and UConn’s Donovan Clingan factor into our best national championship prop bets, and what other player’s odds entice us.

Here are our best prop bets from the National Championship Game between Purdue and UConn (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top 3 Purdue vs. UConn Player Prop Bet Picks

Zach Edey UNDER 23.5 points (-105)

Purdue center Zach Edey made history in the Final Four, as it was his sixth straight NCAA Tournament game with 20 or more points and 10-plus rebounds, which is the longest streak in the tournament since Houston’s Elvin Hayes in 1967-68. Leading up to the NCAA Tournament, Edey had scored 24-plus points in nine of 10 games, but has been held to 23 or fewer in two of the last four. Thus, there is something to be said for better teams and defenses being able to lower Edey’s offensive ceiling, and even though Edey shot 9-for-14 from the field against DJ Burns and N.C. State, the Wolfpack limited him to just two free throws attempts, which cannot be understated given that Edey needs 17 attempts in this game to break the single-season free throw attempts record.

UConn has as good a foil to Edey as you can find in the country, as not only can Donovan Clingan match his size at 7-foot-2, but he is the best individual defender in EvanMiya’s DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating) in the country. If Clingan can stay out of foul trouble (he has three or fewer fouls in 14 consecutive games), that should limit Edey’s free throws attempts, making it much less likely he scores 24-plus points.

Fletcher Loyer UNDER 1.5 3-pointers made (-125)

The -125 odds for Loyer to be held to one or fewer made 3-point baskets might seem steep, considering that he has made multiple threes in six of the last 10 games. However, we expect Loyer to draw the primary defensive assignment from Stephon Castle, whose brilliant on-ball defense was on full display in the win over Illinois. In that game, Castle held Illinois’ Terrance Shannon to eight points on 2-of-12 shooting (including 0-for-1 from 3-point range), when Shannon entered the game having averaged 27.5 points per game over his previous 10.

Purdue makes the second-highest percentage of its 3-pointers (40.6%) of any team in the country, but a big part of that is the Boilermakers’ perimeter shooters getting freed up by the defensive attention paid to Zach Edey. With Clingan able to play one-on-one on Edey in the post, that will allow the Huskies’ guards to stay at home defensively on the perimeter, and Castle has two inches on Loyer, and will bother him with his length.

Donovan Clingan to Win Most Outstanding Player (+185 at FanDuel)

We fully expect UConn to win this game and complete its quest for back-to-back national championships, especially considering the Huskies are 11-0 SU and ATS in their last two NCAA Tournaments, with no victory coming by fewer than 13 points. Clingan has the shortest MOP odds of any UConn player, and while he does not fill the stat sheet from a points perspective (he is UConn’s fourth-leading scorer at 13.1 points per game), he impacts the game in so many other ways, as he eight or more rebounds in seven of the last 11 games, and has blocked 18 shots in the last four NCAA Tournament games.

Entering the Final Four, UConn’s defense held opponents to fewer than 30% shooting in the NCAA Tournament when Clingan was on the floor, which was a 90-point difference compared to when Clingan was off the floor. He would likely get the sentimental vote for MOP given he is the most important returning player from last year’s national championship squad, and even if his biggest contribution in this game is limiting Zach Edey’s offensive production (he has allowed 0.29 points per possession on post attempts, per Synergy), that is more important than him exceeding his season scoring average.

The biggest storyline in this game is the matchup of the two big men, and the attention paid to the Clingan-Edey matchup will help the Huskies center in terms of winning the MOP, especially if his team is victorious.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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