Top 4 Odds & Picks for NASCAR at New Hampshire Ambetter 301 (7/17)

by BettingPros Staff |
Jul 17, 2022

Check out our top for odds and picks for Sundayâ€™s NASCAR at New Hampshire Ambetter 301.

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Odds to Win the Ambetter 301

Best Picks for the Ambetter 301

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a flat, one-mile oval. Its slight banking and tight corners render it similar to Gateway Motorsports Park. It's also akin to Martinsville Speedway, which has a similar paperclip structure but is a half-mile shorter. Richmond Raceway and Phoenix Raceway are also low-banked tracks around this distance, so I'm factoring in driver performances at those four courses in making my Ambetter 301 picks.

1. Winner A: Kevin Harvick | +1600 (.25u) at BetMGM

Harvick and Jeff Burton are the two all-time winningest drivers at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Both drivers own four wins at the Magic Mile. Harvick earned his first win here back in 2006, but he has gone to Victory Lane three more times since 2016.

Unfortunately, Harvick and Stewart-Haas Racing have struggled throughout most of 2022. Harvick is winless, and only Chase Briscoe has earned a win for the organization. But Harvick has looked competitive at New Hampshire's comparator tracks. He finished sixth at Phoenix, second at Richmond, and 14th at Martinsville. Although Harvick crashed out at Gateway, his teammate Aric Almirola scored a top-five result.

Harvick has led laps in the last four New Hampshire races. Ford drivers won all four of those races, too. Aric Almirola won in 2021, Brad Keselowski in 2020, and Harvick in 2019 and 2018. The odds on this market could be better, but you'll find Harvick at +1400 at DraftKings and +1500 at FanDuel, so head to BetMGM for the best value.

2. Winner B: Christopher Bell | +1800 (.25u) at DraftKings

Bell is yet to win at the Magic Mile in the Cup Series. However, he isn't a stranger to Victory Lane here. He won last year's Xfinity Series race at the track after leading 75.5% of the laps. He sat out the 2020 event, but he also won here in 2019 and 2018. He led 93% of the 2019 race and 45.6% of the 2018 race. Those are his only Xfinity Series starts at New Hampshire.

Like Harvick, Bell needs a win to secure a playoff spot. Although he is currently qualified on points, he would fall out of the playoffs if any driver behind him in the standings won a race. As a result, the No. 20 team should get aggressive in an event they know Bell can win.

Bell didn't perform as well as Harvick did in the four comparator events. He finished 26th at Phoenix, sixth at Richmond, 20th at Martinsville, and ninth at Gateway. But his Toyota teammates did wellâ -Denny Hamlin won at Richmond, and Kyle Busch finished second after leading the most laps at Gateway. Bell's odds to win are as short as +1000 at Barstool Sportsbook, so we're getting almost double the value at DraftKings.

3. Matchup: Blaney (-125 (1.25u) at DraftKings) vs. Elliott

This bet is one of the best on the board. I might not have been the first to point it out, but I got action on it back on Wednesday. Blaney is 3-2 against Elliott in the last five New Hampshire races.

Further, the two drivers' performances at the four comparator tracks point to value. Blaney beat Elliott in each event. Blaney finished fourth at Phoenix, seven spots ahead of Elliott. He finished seventh at Richmond, again, seven spots ahead of Elliott. He finished fourth at Martinsville, six spots ahead of Elliott. And he finished fourth at Gateway, 17 spots ahead of Elliott-although Ross Chastain's aggressive driving deserves some of the credit for that difference.

I'm surprised that Blaney hasn't found victory lane yet this year, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him win on Sunday. Taking him to beat Elliott is one of the smartest picks for the Ambetter 301.

4. Top 10: A.J. Allmendinger | +850 (.25u) at FanDuel

I'll wrap up with a long shot to score a top-10 finish. Allmendinger has scored a single top-10 at the Magic Mile in 19 attempts. However, Martinsville and Phoenix have been two of his best oval tracks. He owns seven top 10s at Martinsville and another two at Phoenix.

Allmendinger even scored a top-10 result at Gateway. He took his No. 16 Chevrolet from a 35th-place starting position to 10th. His Kaulig Racing teammate, Justin Haley, even finished 14th.

All of that said, this remains a long-shot play. The best argument for it is the odds differential: this line sits at +350 on DraftKings, +600 on BetMGM, and +850 on FanDuel. Let's lock in the value and hope for the best on Sunday.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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