Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Bears vs. Commanders (Week 5)

by Phil Wood |
Oct 05, 2023

The 0-4 Chicago Bears head on the road to face the Washington Commanders. Here are our best bets and predictions for Thursday Night Football.

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Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football (Week 5)

Washington Commanders -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

The Commanders lost a heartbreaker in Week 4 and they could be due for a letdown Thursday night. However, they're playing one of the two worst teams in football, and they have proven in three of their four games this season that they're not a team to be taken lightly.

Many may think that Justin Fields turned a corner in Week 4, but we're looking at it a different way. Fields threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns against the worst defense in football. The Commanders are allowing just 244.3 passing yards this season so Fields won't have the same success.

Prior to Sunday's loss, the Bears had been getting blown out by everyone. On a short week, we expect the home team to get the job done against a team that they're much better than.

Over 44.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in scoring defense. The Bears are allowing 34.3 points per game, while the Commanders are allowing 30. The Commanders have allowed more than 30 points in three consecutive weeks, while the Bears have scored 20 or fewer in three of their four games.

We still give the advantage to the Bears' offense in this matchup. We don't expect them to score 30, but if they score 21 or more, then this game is easily going to go over. The Commanders have put up 30 or more in two of their four games this season. Against, a bad defense they will could very well hit that number again.

Brian Robinson Jr. 2+ Touchdowns (+500 at DraftKings)

Robinson should have had two touchdowns in Sunday's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Instead, he fumbled an inch away from the goal line and Curtis Samuel picked up the ball in the end zone. Robinson still finished the day with a touchdown.

This season, Robinson has four touchdowns. That's a very good number considering the Commanders didn't score a single touchdown against the Bills. He is the clear number-one back over Antonio Gibson right now and it is clear when this offense gets into the red zone, they want to utilize him.

Washington should have plenty of red zone opportunities against the Bears, which bodes well for Robinson.

Sam Howell Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Howell has two games of 290 or more passing yards and two games of 202 or fewer. Yet, we think this matchup against Chicago on Thursday night is great for him. The Bears are allowing an average of 272 passing yards per game. Three of the four quarterbacks they've faced this season have gone above Howell's posted total.

Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson are both on the injury report, and both truly feel like their status is up in the air. However, Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas will still be on the field, and Dyami Brown can be effective in a supporting role. If Samuel and Dotson do play, then the Bears are never going to be able to cover everyone.

There is always the chance that the Commanders go up big early. Yet, we don't think they'll stop passing. Both of these teams have been involved in games with huge comebacks, so Ron Rivera will remain aggressive even if his team goes up by double-digits.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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