Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Bengals vs. Ravens (Week 11)

by Phil Wood |
Nov 16, 2023

Tonight's AFC North battle will have massive playoff ramifications. With a win, the Baltimore Ravens move one step closer to taking the division title, as they would essentially eliminate the Cincinnati Bengals from contention in the division. If the Bengals win, then the AFC North gets even more crowded, as all four teams will be guaranteed to end Week 11 within one game of each other.

Here are our best bets and predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens.

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Week 11 NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets

All wagers are one unit.

Bengals +3.5 (-108 FanDuel)

For as good as the Ravens have looked at times this season, they've struggled against AFC opponents. They're 4-3 against the AFC and have played in five one-possession games within the conference.

The first time these two teams met this season, Joe Burrow fought through his calf injury and the Bengals fell 27-24. The Ravens amassed 415 yards in that game, yet the Bengals managed to hang around until the contestâ€™s final moments, despite not forcing a single turnover.

The Bengals lost to the Houston Texans last week, which ended their four-game winning streak. But even with the loss, the Bengals are playing their best football of the year. Tonight's game is an absolute must-win for them. Even if they don't win, a field goal will likely decide this game.

Joe Burrow Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110 Bet365)

The Ravens are allowing just 173.1 yards per game. Therefore, it may be alarming to see Burrow's number listed so high ahead of Thursday night's showdown. However, Burrow has been phenomenal since his slow start to the season. He's thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his last five games, and topped this prop in four of his last five.

The Bengals have the worst rushing offense in football, averaging just 74.8 yards per game. They're running the ball 20.7 times per game, the second-lowest number in the NFL. We don't expect that average to increase on Thursday.

Burrow has thrown for 222 yards or fewer in his last three games against the Ravens. Yet, that 222-yard performance at the beginning of the year feels impressive because he was hobbled by an injury.

Gus Edwards Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)

John Harbaugh has promised that Keaton Mitchell will get more touches and factor into the gameplan in a bigger way on Thursday. However, that doesn't stop us from loving Edwards in this matchup.

Edwards is coming off a rough game with only 11 carries for 24 yards. It was his first time going under 50 yards in four games. This season, Edwards has rushed for 47 or more yards in seven games; the first time he faced the Bengals, he ran for 62.

The Bengals have the third-worst run defense in football, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game. The Ravens average the most yards on the ground of any team in the league. That's a good combination for Edwards even if Mitchell gets more carries.

Tyler Boyd Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110 Bet365)

Tee Higgins is out again, which opens up opportunities for Boyd. With Higgins absent last week, Boyd finished the game with eight catches for 117 yards. He also scored a touchdown late in the game.

While Ja'Marr Chase has been excellent of late, his number is too high to be comfortable with. Right now, his line is sitting at 80.5 receiving yards, and while he could go over that number tonight, it's asking a lot against this defense.

But we expect Boyd to have another nice night as he factors into this offense in a big way. Burrow and the Bengals will have to throw if they're going to win this game. With the receiving corps less crowded than usual, Boyd should record his third consecutive 50-yard game.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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