Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football: Broncos vs. Chiefs (Week 6)

by Phil Wood |
Oct 12, 2023

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host the 1-4 Denver Broncos. Here are our best bets and predictions for Thursday Night Football.

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Top 4 Picks for NFL Thursday Night Football (Week 6)

Denver Broncos +11 (-112 DraftKings)

On paper, this is an obvious mismatch. And really, there's not much the Broncos can do to win this game. Travis Kelce is expected to play, but even if he does, we think 10.5 points is too much.

Kelce may not be on the field as much as he usually is. This is a game the Chiefs should win, and on the short week, we doubt the Chiefs challenge their star tight end. With that in mind, we saw how the Chiefs looked in Week 1 without Kelce. While Mahomes has had time to adjust to his receiving corps, there still could be issues this week.

Last season, the Broncos finished 5-12, yet their two losses to the Chiefs were by a combined nine points. This game on Thursday night is for their season. With a loss, they have no chance in the AFC West. That doesn't mean they're going to win, it just means that they're going to keep it close.

Over 47 (-110 DraftKings)

The Chiefs have had three games with a total listed at 50 or higher and every single one of them has gone under. When you look at the difference between the actual score and the total listed by oddsmakers, Chiefs' games are averaging 7.4 points under what oddsmakers are listing the line. That's the largest discrepancy in favor of the under in the league.

Yet, even with Kelce likely limited, we're taking the over in this one. The Broncos have allowed at least 28 points in their last four games. The New York Jets just scored 31 points last week.

The Chiefs' defense has been very good for most of the season. They held the Minnesota Vikings to 20 last week, and the Jacksonville Jaguars only managed nine. However, the Broncos' offense and Russell Wilson are better than they're getting credit for. Wilson is currently outperforming Mahomes in touchdowns and interceptions. Last season, he had solid numbers against the Chiefs. We expect that to continue tonight and help push this over.

Isiah Pacheco Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-110 bet365)

This comes down to how many carries Pacheco can get throughout the game. The Broncos are the worst team against the run in the NFL, and it's not close. They're allowing 187.6 rushing yards per game, which is 33.6 yards more than the next-worst team. They're also allowing a league-worst 5.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Pacheco is averaging 4.6 yards per carry, though he only mustered 3.4 per against the Vikings last week. However, in the three games prior to last Sunday, Pacheco averaged 4.1 yards or more against all three of his opponents.

So, will Pacheco carry the ball at least 15 times on Thursday? In each of his last three games, he had at least that many attempts. He's only cleared 77.5 rushing yards in one of those contests, but he also hasn't played a defense as bad as the Broncos'. When they sell out to stop Mahomes, Pacheco will break off huge chunk plays to hit this prop.

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+160 DraftKings)

The price for this is too good to pass up. Wilson has 11 passing touchdowns through five games, and he has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all but one game this season. Last season, he threw three touchdown passes in the Broncos' 34-28 home loss to the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are only allowing 1.6 touchdowns of any kind per game. However, the Broncos should be playing from behind in this one, and Wilson has shown that he has the ability to put together some explosive plays with his team trailing by a lot.

If this price was -110, we'd never take this bet. But at +160, this is absolutely worth a play.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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